MSA Safety (MSA): Evaluating Valuation Following Q3 Beat and Ongoing Fire Service Challenges
MSA Safety (MSA) topped both revenue and earnings forecasts in the third quarter of 2025, driven by gains in detection equipment and industrial personal protective equipment. The company’s fire service division, however, continues to face near-term headwinds due to delayed federal funding and regulatory changes.
See our latest analysis for MSA Safety.
Despite the strong operating results, MSA Safety’s share price has retreated in recent months, with a 1-month share price return of -9.8% and year-to-date return of -4.8%. Investor sentiment cooled as profit margins came under pressure and funding delays hit its fire service segment, but the company’s three-year total shareholder return still stands above 21%, which suggests that long-term momentum and confidence in its strategy remain intact.
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With MSA Safety’s valuation now at a notable discount to analyst price targets after a dip in shares, the question for investors is clear. Does this present a compelling entry point, or is future growth already reflected in the stock?
Most Popular Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued
MSA Safety’s prevailing narrative sees fair value well above the latest closing price, building a case for attractive upside. Expectations for accelerating connected safety solutions and new market expansion underpin this perspective.
Robust growth in connected safety solutions (such as MSA+ and ALTAIR io 4) reflects increasing customer adoption of advanced, cloud-connected worker technologies, a trend driven by heightened workplace safety requirements and industrial digitization. This positions MSA for above-average revenue and margin expansion because these premium products command higher prices. Strategic R&D investments and fast innovation cycles (with imminent new product launches like the io 6) are allowing MSA to continually upgrade its product portfolio, supporting sustained organic growth rates and higher EBITDA margins due to market-leading offerings and product mix improvement.
Want to know the numbers backing this bullish valuation? This narrative is betting on rapid product innovation, surging demand, and market-leading expansion. You’ll be surprised which future assumptions drive the price target.
Result: Fair Value of $191.8 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, ongoing cost pressures and uncertain government funding could challenge these upbeat assumptions, and may serve as turning points for the current valuation narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this MSA Safety narrative.
Build Your Own MSA Safety Narrative
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A great starting point for your MSA Safety research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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