Assessing Timken (TKR) Valuation After Recent 4% Share Price Surge
See our latest analysis for Timken.
Timken’s 4% share price jump this week reflects renewed investor confidence. This builds on an impressive year-to-date share price return of 10.9%. While the stock has cooled slightly over the last quarter, its five-year total shareholder return tells the larger story of steady value creation for long-term holders.
If Timken’s momentum has you thinking bigger, now is a good moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership
This leaves investors with a pressing question. With Timken’s valuation close to analyst price targets and strong financial growth, is there still room for upside or has the market already rewarded its future prospects?
Most Popular Narrative: 11.4% Undervalued
Timken’s most widely followed fair value estimate sits at $87.41, around 11% above the last close of $77.48. The narrative behind this price is shaped by analyst expectations for improving profitability and continued strategic transformation.
Timken is implementing a pricing strategy to offset the cost impact of tariffs, which is expected to fully mitigate the direct impact from tariffs on a run-rate basis by the end of the year. This proactive approach should help maintain and eventually improve net margins.
Want to know how Timken’s fair value stacks up? Bold assumptions about margin expansion, future leadership, and multi-year profit growth are hidden in this narrative's math. Curious what financial projections power this 11% gap? Dive into the full story to uncover which numbers drive the analysts’ bullish outlook.
Result: Fair Value of $87.41 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, challenges remain, including weaker organic revenue and declining profit margins. These factors could pressure Timken’s future growth if conditions persist.
Find out about the key risks to this Timken narrative.
Another View: SWS DCF Model Suggests Overvaluation
Looking through the lens of the SWS DCF model, Timken appears overvalued, trading well above our estimated fair value of $47.92 per share. This approach considers future cash flows rather than market averages and offers a more cautious perspective than analyst price targets. Which method better reflects Timken’s true worth?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Timken for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 918 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Build Your Own Timken Narrative
If you have a different take or want to draw your own conclusions, digging into the numbers and building a personal view takes just minutes. Do it your way
A great starting point for your Timken research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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