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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI): Assessing Valuation After Megawatt Market Entry and Mixed Financial Results

Simply Wall St·11/29/2025 08:23:35
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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) set a new course with its entry into the megawatt market, announcing a 240MW initial order and plans for further deployments. The company's latest results showed revenue gains, although it faced a challenging quarter for EBITDA and net income.

See our latest analysis for Atlas Energy Solutions.

Atlas Energy Solutions' foray into the megawatt market arrives after a tough stretch for the stock, with a year-to-date share price return of -62.51% and a 1-year total shareholder return of -61.49%. The recent surge, up 3.36% in a single day and 5.77% over the past week, suggests investors are reacting to the company’s efforts to diversify and pursue new markets. However, longer-term momentum remains subdued following recent headwinds.

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With the stock trading at a significant discount to analyst targets, but facing ongoing financial challenges, the key question is whether Atlas Energy Solutions offers an attractive entry point for investors or if future growth is already fully reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 31% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative pegs Atlas Energy Solutions' fair value at $12.50 per share, a notable premium to the last close at $8.62. This sets up a debate over whether strong future recovery drivers can outweigh current sector weakness.

The launch of Atlas' Power business (following the Moser Energy Systems acquisition) offers a new, diversifying growth engine with exposure to fast-growing commercial, industrial, and technology sectors that are signing multi-year contracts beyond traditional oil and gas. This diversification may reduce revenue cyclicality and support long-term earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling this bullish forecast? The surprising twist is hidden in aggressive earnings growth and margin expectations, plus a bold turnaround in profitability. Don’t miss the financial leaps underpinning this valuation—see which numbers the narrative is betting everything on.

Result: Fair Value of $12.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weakness in sand prices and ongoing volatility in Permian Basin activity could still pressure earnings and test the company's turnaround prospects.

Find out about the key risks to this Atlas Energy Solutions narrative.

Build Your Own Atlas Energy Solutions Narrative

If the story above doesn't align with your outlook or you prefer diving into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own view of Atlas Energy Solutions in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Atlas Energy Solutions research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.