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How Rising Short Interest at Mosaic (MOS) Could Reshape Its Investment Narrative

Simply Wall St·12/02/2025 06:15:40
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  • In late November 2025, Mosaic experienced a 16.4% increase in short interest, with 14.44 million shares sold short, now representing 5.18% of its float, which stands well above the average for its peers.
  • This elevated short interest level highlights increased bearish sentiment or expectations of near-term volatility in Mosaic compared to its industry competitors.
  • We'll explore how the rise in Mosaic's short interest may affect the company's risk profile within its current investment narrative.

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Mosaic Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in Mosaic, one generally needs to believe in the long-term stability of global fertilizer demand, Mosaic's ability to manage commodity cycles, and ongoing cost improvements. The recent surge in short interest, while notable, does not appear to materially affect the most immediate catalyst, potential margin enhancement from operational efficiencies, or the core risk of prolonged pricing pressure driven by global supply dynamics.

Among the company's recent announcements, the November quarterly dividend affirmation stands out. This decision may signal management’s confidence in ongoing cash flow generation, supporting the near-term stability narrative even as rising short interest suggests the market is pricing in more volatility.

However, with supply expansions from Russia, Belarus and Morocco still active concerns, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Mosaic (it's free!)

Mosaic's outlook anticipates $13.1 billion in revenue and $851.3 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 5.2% annual revenue growth rate, but earnings are expected to decrease by $88.7 million from current earnings of $940.0 million.

Uncover how Mosaic's forecasts yield a $35.22 fair value, a 41% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

MOS Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
MOS Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Three Simply Wall St Community members value Mosaic between US$35.10 and US$36.85 per share. With broader risks from persistent global overcapacity in fertilizer markets, you can see views differ greatly, take the opportunity to compare several approaches.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Mosaic - why the stock might be worth as much as 48% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Mosaic Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.