Rio Tinto Projects 7% Production Growth In 2025, Plans $5B–$10B Cash Release From Assets And More
Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:RIO) on Thursday outlined a strategy to deliver industry-leading returns at its 2025 Capital Markets Day.
The company plans to streamline into iron ore, copper, aluminium and lithium while boosting safety and productivity.
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Production Outlook
For 2025, Rio Tinto revised its production guidance across key commodities: copper is now expected at 860–875 kt (up from 780–850 kt), bauxite is set to exceed the prior 59–61 Mt guidance, while aluminium is expected at the top end of the 3.25–3.45 Mt range.
Also Read: Rio Tinto Signs Long-Term Wind Deal In A Push To Cut Emissions
Rio Tinto projects 7% production growth in 2025 and a 3% compound annual growth rate through 2030, driven by ramp-ups at copper (Oyu Tolgoi), iron ore (Simandou) and lithium (Arcadium, Rincon) projects.
The company projects a 4% unit cost reduction from 2024-2030, with mid-term capex guidance (2028+) below $10 billion as major replacement projects are completed.
Also, the company anticipates lithium capacity to reach ~200 ktpa by 2028 and EBITDA to rise 40%–50% by 2030, driven by 20% copper-equivalent production growth and disciplined capital allocation.
Cost Reductions & Other Targets
The company has already realized $650 million in annualized productivity gains within the first three months, with more expected, thanks to a simplified organization, stronger operational discipline and a sharper portfolio focus by halting non-core initiatives.
Additionally, the mining giant is targeting an opportunistic $5 billion–$10 billion cash release from its existing assets, including ongoing strategic reviews of iron, titanium and borates, now entering a market-testing phase.
The company aims for a 50% emissions reduction by 2030 with $1billion–$2 billion in capital (vs. $5 billion-$6 billion prior).
Third-Quarter Production Update
In October, the company reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 Pilbara iron ore production of 84.1 million tonnes (Mt), flat year over year (Y/Y).
Pilbara iron ore shipments (consolidated basis) also remained stable Y/Y at 84.3Mt in the quarter. Notably, Pilbara achieved its second-highest third-quarter shipments since 2019.
RIO Price Action: Rio Tinto shares are down 0.82% at $73.67 at publication on Thursday.
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