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Does LyondellBasell (LYB) Dividend Stability Mask Deeper Shifts In Its Petrochemical Profit Engine?

Simply Wall St·12/05/2025 08:30:46
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  • LyondellBasell Industries recently declared a US$1.37 per share dividend, payable on December 8, 2025, to shareholders of record as of the December 1 ex-dividend date.
  • This payout comes as investors weigh concerns over the company’s declining revenues, weaker international operations, and rising cost pressures in a structurally shifting petrochemical market.
  • We’ll now examine how these structural concerns about LyondellBasell’s petrochemical markets could reshape the company’s investment narrative and outlook.

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LyondellBasell Industries Investment Narrative Recap

To own LyondellBasell today, you need to believe its push into more efficient, cost advantaged and circular petrochemicals can eventually offset weaker international operations and a structurally tougher market. The latest US$1.37 dividend declaration does not materially change the near term picture, where the key catalyst remains execution on portfolio optimization while the main risk is further earnings pressure from overcapacity and rising costs.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the affirmed US$1.37 per share dividend, payable on 8 December 2025, even after a Q3 net loss of US$892 million. For investors, this raises pointed questions about how long such a payout can be maintained if revenues continue to decline and cash flow remains under strain, especially with a high debt load and elevated capital needs in recycling and feedstock projects.

Yet investors should also be aware that prolonged global overcapacity in core plastics markets could...

Read the full narrative on LyondellBasell Industries (it's free!)

LyondellBasell Industries' narrative projects $29.2 billion revenue and $2.2 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 9.0% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $2.1 billion from $150.0 million today.

Uncover how LyondellBasell Industries' forecasts yield a $53.78 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

LYB Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
LYB Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Twelve members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see LyondellBasell’s fair value anywhere between US$38.02 and US$115.55 per share. When you set those wide ranging views against the risk of sustained petrochemical overcapacity and margin pressure, it becomes clear why it can pay to compare several independent opinions before forming your own.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on LyondellBasell Industries - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own LyondellBasell Industries Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.