Molina Healthcare (MOH) Valuation After Legal Challenges, Reduced 2025 Guidance and Rising Medicaid and Cost Pressures
Molina Healthcare (MOH) is under heavy pressure, with multiple securities class actions accusing management of downplaying medical cost trends just as the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook and warned on Medicaid headwinds.
See our latest analysis for Molina Healthcare.
Those legal and earnings setbacks have come after a sharp rerating, with the share price at $151.86 and a year to date share price return of negative 47.13 percent. The three year total shareholder return of negative 55.49 percent shows longer term momentum has clearly faded.
If Molina’s challenges have you reassessing the healthcare space, this could be a good moment to explore other healthcare stocks that may offer more resilient growth and risk profiles.
With Molina now trading near multi year lows despite double digit revenue growth and a sizeable discount to analyst targets, the key question is whether pessimism has gone too far or whether markets are accurately pricing in weaker earnings power ahead.
Most Popular Narrative: 10.7% Undervalued
Compared to Molina Healthcare’s last close at $151.86, the most widely followed narrative points to a modest upside based on long term earnings power.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $196.714 for Molina Healthcare based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $330.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $153.0.
Want to see what justifies paying up for a business facing margin pressure and muted earnings growth? The narrative leans on disciplined costs, steady revenue expansion and a surprisingly low future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into that fair value call?
The narrative framework applies a 6.96 percent discount rate to projected revenue growth, thinner profit margins and declining share count to arrive at a fair value of roughly 170 dollars, implying Molina is trading at a discounted earnings multiple versus what those cash flows could support.
Result: Fair Value of $170 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that upside case depends on Medicaid policy stability, because funding cuts or tougher state budgets could potentially undermine margins and the 2026 recovery narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Molina Healthcare narrative.
Build Your Own Molina Healthcare Narrative
If this viewpoint does not quite fit your own or you prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way
A great starting point for your Molina Healthcare research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Ready for your next investing move?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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