- Investors may be wondering whether FIGS stock still offers value after its strong run, or if most of the easy upside is already reflected in the price.
- FIGS shares recently closed at US$15.37, with returns of 2.7% over 7 days, 13.9% over 30 days, 34.9% year to date and 204.4% over the past year. This naturally raises questions about how the risk and reward now stack up.
- Recent news coverage has focused on FIGS as a high growth healthcare apparel stock and on how investors are reassessing the sector. This backdrop helps explain why the share price has been in focus for both momentum traders and longer term holders.
- Despite that attention, FIGS currently holds a valuation score of 0 out of 6. Next comes a closer look at how different valuation methods assess the stock and how an even richer way of thinking about value can change the picture later in the article.
FIGS scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: FIGS Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes expected future cash flows and then discounts them back to today using a required rate of return to estimate what the business might be worth right now.
For FIGS, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $46.0 million. Analysts provide explicit forecasts up to 2027, with free cash flow for that year projected at $74.0 million. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates further, with the ten year path reaching an implied free cash flow of about $100.4 million in 2035, supported by a series of intermediate annual projections.
Discounting these projected cash flows back to today results in an estimated intrinsic value of $8.54 per share, compared with the recent share price of $15.37. On this model, FIGS stock screens as expensive, with the DCF implying it is about 79.9% overvalued.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests FIGS may be overvalued by 79.9%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: FIGS Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It is simple to compare across stocks and helps you quickly see how the market is pricing current profits.
In general, higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk tend to justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually line up with a lower, more conservative P/E. So context is crucial when you look at any single number.
FIGS currently trades on a P/E of 74.96x. That sits above the Luxury industry average P/E of 21.05x and also above the peer average of 56.34x. On the face of it, the stock is priced more richly than both its sector and its peer group.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for FIGS is 23.90x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E could be, given factors like the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margin, industry, market cap and key risks. Because it incorporates these elements directly, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison against broad industry or peer averages.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 23.90x with the actual P/E of 74.96x suggests the stock is trading above what this framework would consider a fair multiple.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your FIGS Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so this is where Narratives come in, giving you a simple story driven framework that connects your view of FIGS to a forecast and then to a fair value that can be compared with the current price.
A Narrative is your own explanation of what is really going on at a company, linked directly to numbers such as revenue, earnings and margins. Instead of just accepting a single DCF or P/E output, you attach your assumptions to a clear story that anyone can read and test.
On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and are designed to be easy to use. You can quickly see how a particular storyline around FIGS translates into a fair value, then compare that figure with the current US$15.37 share price to decide whether it looks high, low or roughly in line with your expectations.
Because Narratives update as new earnings, news or guidance are added, you can see how the consensus Narrative on FIGS that points to a fair value of US$17.75 differs from a more optimistic view with fair value of US$22.00 or a more cautious one at US$6.20. You can then decide which version of the FIGS story, and which fair value range, best matches your own thinking.
For FIGS, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading FIGS Narratives:
Fair value: US$17.75
Implied discount vs US$15.37: 13.4% undervalued
Revenue growth assumption: 8.35% a year
- Focuses on international expansion, new product launches and a digital first model to broaden the customer base and support revenue growth.
- Assumes improving margins over time, helped by cost discipline and logistics and SG&A efficiency, despite tariff and macro related headwinds.
- Sees analyst fair value anchored to higher earnings and an assumed future P/E of 60.2x, with a range of price targets between US$14.00 and US$22.00.
Fair value: US$7.21
Implied premium vs US$15.37: 113.3% overvalued
Revenue growth assumption: 9.0% a year
- Accepts that FIGS still has growth avenues such as new products, TEAMS and geographic reach, but treats execution as critical after past share price volatility and margin pressure.
- Highlights risks around FX, economic sensitivity of a premium offering and the possibility that brand and marketing rely more on perception than product function.
- Frames valuation through a lower fair value estimate, suggesting that current pricing already reflects a high degree of optimism about margins and growth levers.
These two Narratives sit on opposite sides of the value debate. This contrast can help when you are pressure testing your own view. Use them as reference points, then decide where your expectations on growth, margins and risks place you on the FIGS spectrum.
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for FIGS on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
Do you think there's more to the story for FIGS? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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