It's been a good week for Summit Midstream Corporation (NYSE:SMC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.9% to US$32.13. Revenues of US$139m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.43, some 12% smaller than was expected. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their mind on Summit Midstream after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Summit Midstream's sole analyst is for revenues of US$584.8m in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 44% to US$0.93. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$579.2m and US$1.09 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analyst upgrading their numbers and making a notable improvement in losses per share in particular.
View our latest analysis for Summit Midstream
The average price target rose 11% to US$51.00, with the analyst signalling that the forecast reduction in losses would be a positive for the stock's valuation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Summit Midstream's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.3% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Summit Midstream is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether Summit Midstream's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.