- Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported past-quarter revenue and shipment improvements, a smaller adjusted loss, and a swing to positive adjusted EBITDA after a US$1.40 billion loss in 2025, while outlining asset sales and working capital reductions to speed up debt reduction and strengthen its balance sheet.
- At the same time, a Schedule 13G filing showed State Street holding a 6.9% passive stake, underscoring how institutional investors may be responding to Cleveland-Cliffs' efforts to improve financial resilience amid ongoing tariff and competitive risks.
- We’ll now examine how Cleveland-Cliffs’ push to accelerate deleveraging through asset sales could influence its existing investment narrative and risk profile.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap
To own Cleveland-Cliffs today, you need to believe that tariff support, automotive demand, and cost improvements can eventually outweigh recent losses and balance sheet strain. The latest results and deleveraging push modestly support that near term catalyst of improving cash generation, while the biggest near term risk remains any weakening of U.S. steel tariffs or competitive pressure from lower cost mini mills. The State Street filing does not materially change that risk reward balance.
The most relevant update here is management’s emphasis on asset sales and working capital reductions to speed up debt reduction. Coupled with Q1 2026’s improved revenue, shipments, and adjusted EBITDA, this effort ties directly into the existing catalyst of deleveraging to improve financial resilience, while still leaving investors exposed to uncertainties around tariffs, energy costs, and the capital needs of a carbon intensive footprint.
Yet investors should also weigh how much Cleveland-Cliffs still depends on trade protection and older blast furnace technology as they consider whether this is information they should be aware of...
Read the full narrative on Cleveland-Cliffs (it's free!)
Cleveland-Cliffs' narrative projects $22.1 billion revenue and $606.6 million earnings by 2029. This requires 5.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.8 billion from -$1.2 billion today.
Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs' forecasts yield a $10.67 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Some of the most optimistic analysts saw tariffs and asset optimization driving revenue toward about US$22.8 billion and positive earnings, but the latest deleveraging news could either strengthen or challenge that view, reminding you that reasonable people can look at the same company and reach very different conclusions.
Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth 42% less than the current price!
Form Your Own Verdict
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
- A great starting point for your Cleveland-Cliffs research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free Cleveland-Cliffs research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cleveland-Cliffs' overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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