Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) has been in focus after first quarter 2026 results showed revenue of US$265.19 million and net income of US$23.58 million, along with raised full year revenue guidance.
See our latest analysis for Alarm.com Holdings.
At a share price of US$43.47, Alarm.com Holdings has seen short term momentum pick up with a 7 day share price return of 3.18%. However, its year to date share price return is down 15.16% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 26.02%, pointing to longer term sentiment that remains cautious despite the raised guidance.
If you are weighing Alarm.com’s guidance alongside other opportunities in connected technology, this can be a useful moment to scan 43 AI infrastructure stocks
With the stock down over the past year but trading below some valuation estimates, the key question for you is simple: Is Alarm.com currently undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth potential?
Most Popular Narrative: 25.1% Undervalued
Alarm.com Holdings' most followed narrative pegs fair value at $58, which sits well above the last close of $43.47 and frames the current discount clearly.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $58.0 for Alarm.com Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $85.0 and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $40.0.
Want to see what is driving that fair value gap? The core narrative blends steady top line expansion, improving profitability, and a future earnings multiple that assumes the business keeps compounding at a measured pace without stretching expectations.
Result: Fair Value of $58 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the picture is not one sided. Higher hardware and tariff costs, or slower international uptake, are both capable of squeezing margins and challenging that undervaluation story.
Find out about the key risks to this Alarm.com Holdings narrative.
Next Steps
If this combination of caution and potential upside has you considering your options, review the latest data and form your own perspective by checking the 3 key rewards
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Alarm.com has your attention, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with other opportunities that match the kind of qualities you care about most.
- Capture potential value by scanning companies that currently screen as high quality and priced below some estimates of fair value through the 54 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Strengthen the income side of your portfolio by checking stocks in the 12 dividend fortresses that aim to pair higher yields with resilience.
- Prioritise resilience by reviewing companies in the 66 resilient stocks with low risk scores that currently show lower overall risk scores.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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