HubSpot (HUBS) is back in focus after a post earnings selloff gave way to renewed buying interest, with investors reacting to solid first quarter results, higher 2026 guidance, and progress on AI monetization.
See our latest analysis for HubSpot.
Those earnings and guidance headlines have come against a rough year for holders, with the share price down 46.79% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return down 67.26%. As a result, the recent 7 day share price gain of 13.63% looks more like a rebound than a full change in trend.
If HubSpot's AI driven recovery has your attention, it can be useful to widen the lens and see what else is moving across the sector using our screener of 34 AI small caps
With HubSpot trading at a steep discount to some analysts’ price targets and certain intrinsic value estimates, yet already rebounding after earnings, you have to ask: is this a genuine mispricing, or is the market already baking in expectations for future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 38.3% Undervalued
HubSpot's last close at $203.39 sits well below a narrative fair value of $329.51, which frames the recent rebound as only part of the picture.
HubSpot is a well-positioned, product-led CRM for SMBs with clear expansion levers. I don't believe companies will build their own HubSpot equivalents, which strengthens the durability of HubSpot’s SMB moat and reduces one potential downside. The investment case still depends on execution: protecting ARPU, delivering differentiated AI, and profitable scaling.
The 38.3% undervaluation call leans heavily on how fast earnings scale, how Breeze AI affects pricing power, and how far margins can stretch. Want to see exactly how those moving pieces feed into that $329.51 figure and the growth path behind it?
Result: Fair Value of $329.51 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on HubSpot avoiding AI features becoming commoditized and on competitors not winning higher value customers away. Both of these developments could quickly undermine the thesis.
Find out about the key risks to this HubSpot narrative.
Another View: High P/E Puts the Brakes on the Undervaluation Story
That 38.3% undervaluation call sits awkwardly next to HubSpot's current P/E of 103.9x, compared with 26.7x for the US Software industry, 54.3x for peers, and a fair ratio of 44.5x. In plain terms, the stock already carries a rich earnings multiple, so the question is how much safety margin is really there.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If this mix of optimism and caution feels familiar, treat it as your cue to move quickly and test the thesis against the numbers yourself, starting with 3 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If HubSpot has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with stocks that fit clear, high quality criteria before the next move.
- Target quality at a discount by checking companies that look attractively priced on fundamentals using the 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
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- Hunt for potential future standouts early by scanning the screener containing 21 high quality undiscovered gems before they get crowded.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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