Analog Devices (ADI) has drawn fresh attention after reporting record fiscal second quarter results, with sales of US$3.62b and net income of US$1.18b, supported by industrial demand and AI focused data center customers.
See our latest analysis for Analog Devices.
The strong fiscal second quarter and upbeat AI focused outlook have been met with a mixed share price reaction, with a 1 day share price return of 3.35% but a 7 day decline of 4.89%. At the same time, the year to date share price return of 45.05% and 1 year total shareholder return of 91.54% point to powerful momentum over a longer stretch.
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With ADI shares up 45.05% year to date and recent returns cooling, the key question now is whether record AI driven earnings still leave room for upside, or if the market is already pricing in the next leg of growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued
Analog Devices' most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at about $392.94, just below the last close of $397.07. This puts the stock slightly above that fair value line and makes the underlying assumptions worth a closer look.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $392.94 for Analog Devices based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $475.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $295.0.
Want to see what is behind that tight gap between price and fair value? The story leans heavily on faster growth, expanding margins, and a richer earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really carry the valuation and how much disagreement sits beneath the surface? The full narrative joins those moving parts into one coherent price story.
Result: Fair Value of $392.94 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the narrow gap between price and fair value can quickly widen if competitive pressure in China or a softer industrial cycle affects margins and revenue assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Analog Devices narrative.
Another Way To Look At Valuation
Analysts’ narrative points to only a small 1% gap between price and fair value, but the earnings multiple tells a sharper story. ADI trades on a P/E of 58.4x, above peers at 43.1x and well above a fair ratio of 36x, which lifts valuation risk if sentiment cools.
Given that premium, it is worth asking whether earnings and margins can keep justifying this gap, or whether the market could drift closer to that fair ratio over time.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Strong results, a rich valuation and mixed sentiment can pull in different directions, so it helps to see the full picture yourself and move quickly. To weigh both the upside and the concerns, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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