- If you are wondering whether Cellebrite DI stock offers good value at today’s prices, the key is to understand how that price compares with what the business might reasonably be worth.
- The share price last closed at US$14.73, after gaining 11.8% over the past week and 10.3% over the past month, while being down 17.4% year to date and down 11.7% over the last year, with a very large 3 year gain and a 48.8% gain over 5 years.
- Recent trading has been shaped by ongoing interest in Cellebrite DI’s role in digital intelligence tools and its position within the broader software sector. This context matters because changing expectations around growth, regulation, or contract pipelines can quickly shift how investors think about what the stock is worth.
- Cellebrite DI currently has a value score of 2 out of 6. The next step is to unpack what different valuation methods say about the stock today, and then look at an even richer way to think about valuation that ties everything together at the end of this article.
Cellebrite DI scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Cellebrite DI Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting the company’s future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in today’s terms.
For Cellebrite DI, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $156.47 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations suggest free cash flow could reach $448.46 million in 2035, with intermediate points such as $172.76 million in 2026 and $259 million in 2028. Simply Wall St extrapolates beyond the analyst horizon to build a 10 year path of projected free cash flows.
When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $17.00 per share, compared with the recent share price of $14.73. This implies the stock trades at roughly a 13.3% discount to the model’s estimate of fair value.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Cellebrite DI is undervalued by 13.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 46 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Cellebrite DI Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties directly to what the business is currently earning, which many investors find easier to relate to than long range cash flow estimates.
What counts as a "normal" P/E depends on how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower one.
Cellebrite DI trades on a P/E of 51.50x. This is above the Software industry average of 29.33x and below the peer average of 73.46x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Cellebrite DI is 30.59x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.
The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for the company’s own profile rather than assuming one size fits all. Comparing 51.50x with the Fair Ratio of 30.59x suggests the stock is trading above that modelled level.
Result: OVERVALUED
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Cellebrite DI Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so this is where Narratives come in, giving you a clear story behind the numbers by linking your view on Cellebrite DI’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool used by millions of investors that let you choose or adjust assumptions, compare the resulting Fair Value with the current price, and see how that gap might influence your own decision about whether the stock looks attractive, fully priced or expensive.
Narratives also respond to new data, so when fresh news or earnings arrive, the forecast and fair value inside each Narrative update, keeping the story and the numbers aligned without you needing to rebuild a model from scratch.
For Cellebrite DI, one investor might align with a more cautious Narrative that uses a Fair Value of US$15.00 based on revenue growth of 16.9%, a profit margin of 15.3% and a future P/E of 42.1x. Another might choose a more optimistic Narrative with a Fair Value of US$28.00 built on revenue growth of 18.9%, a profit margin of 28.1% and a future P/E of 54.9x. The platform lets you see these side by side so you can decide which story best matches your expectations.
Do you think there's more to the story for Cellebrite DI? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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