Aurora Innovation stock overview
Aurora Innovation (AUR) has drawn fresh attention as investors reassess self-driving technology companies, with the stock moving from short term weakness into stronger recent gains and financials that combine rapid revenue growth with sizeable losses.
See our latest analysis for Aurora Innovation.
At a share price of $6.84, Aurora’s 90 day share price return of 52.34% and year to date gain of 76.74% indicate strong recent momentum, alongside a 3 year total shareholder return of 232.04%, although the 5 year total shareholder return is 31.05%.
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With Aurora’s rapid revenue growth, large reported loss and strong recent share price gains, the core question now is simple: is this stock still trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 30.1% Undervalued
With Aurora Innovation’s fair value estimate of $9.79 sitting well above the last close at $6.84, the leading narrative frames this as a high growth, high uncertainty story built around aggressive revenue expansion and a long runway to potential profitability.
• Analysts are assuming Aurora Innovation's revenue will grow by 596.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Aurora Innovation will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Aurora Innovation's profit margin will increase from -40150.0% to the average US Software industry of 12.7% in 3 years.
Want to see what kind of revenue ramp and margin turnaround are reflected in that fair value, and how they connect to a very elevated future earnings multiple? The full narrative lays out the growth path, profitability bridge and valuation math that sit behind the $9.79 figure, so you can compare those assumptions with your own view before deciding how this stock fits your portfolio.
Result: Fair Value of $9.79 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this story can change quickly if the very small current revenue base persists or if large operating losses force fresh equity raises and dilution.
Find out about the key risks to this Aurora Innovation narrative.
Next Steps
The mix of strong momentum, big potential and real risks makes this a charged story, so move quickly beyond headlines and weigh the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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