U.S. stock futures are tumbling heading into Monday morning as a fresh weekend military confrontation between Washington and Tehran has shattered the fragile interim peace agreement.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd has turned heavily bearish for the July 13 opening bell. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?” betting contract currently shows just a 22% chance of an “Up” open, as intense geopolitical uncertainty returns to the forefront.
Why That Number Matters
The market’s abrupt shift follows a new round of strikes ordered by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Sunday evening to “hold Iranian forces accountable.” The military action was triggered after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a commercial container ship transiting the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
This direct disruption of the shipping corridor has upended multiple asset classes:
- Futures Slide: Equity benchmarks are pointing to a weak open, with S&P 500 futures dropping 0.51% and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 1.24%. Dow futures have shed 0.37%.
- Crude Surges: Energy markets jumped over 4%, with real-time quotes showing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbing to $74.41 per barrel, higher by 4.20% and Brent oil futures rallying to $79.14, up by 4.12%.
- Hormuz Standoff: While Iranian state media declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, President Donald Trump and CENTCOM explicitly disputed the claim, asserting that traffic is flowing and the international waterway remains open. Iran has reportedly retaliated with targeted strikes against U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.
Market Commentary
Market strategists Ed Yardeni and Toby Hearst note that this re-escalation validates warnings that any long-term peace agreement with Iran could effectively be derailed by the IRGC threatening maritime trade lanes.
However, they highlight several key technical indicators supporting the broader global landscape:
- Resilient Global Revenue: Despite the immediate Middle East instability, the broader global economy continues to handle the latest oil shocks remarkably well. Forward revenues per share for the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) rose to another record high last week.
- Regional Rotation: While U.S. mega-caps face localized strain, international leadership has rotated to Asia. Last week, exchange-traded funds for China and Singapore led the country indices with 4.9% gains each, while South Korea’s technology-focused market bounced 1.9%, signaling stabilization after weeks of intense profit-taking.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Friday, July 10, Polymarket contract resolved “Up,” despite traders betting on the lower opening. The S&P 500 opened Friday at 7,547.64, following Thursday’s close of 7,543.64. The bet settled with a final traded volume of $148,893.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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