04:20 AM EDT, 07/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Morgan Stanley expects Rio Tinto Group's (RIO.L) second-quarter production update to show shipments in the mining giant's Western Australia iron ore operations to be "slightly ahead of consensus." In a European earnings preview note published July 10, the research firm said it projects Pilbara shipments of 84.6 million tonnes, "modestly above" Visible Alpha consensus of 83.6mt and aligning with port tracking data. With its first-half cash-cost estimate sitting 2% higher than consensus and above the upper limit of management's guidance, analysts anticipate Rio Tinto will issue a revised range alongside its second-quarter operations review due Tuesday, London time. "We expect the market's focus to be on Pilbara shipments, which should be slightly ahead of consensus and consistent with maintaining FY26 guidance as cyclone-related disruption [normalizes]. We expect copper and [aluminum] to be broadly in line with consensus. We will focus on Pilbara port performance, Kennecott restart progress following the March incident, [aluminum] price realizations/tariff costs, and any updates to FY26 unit cost guidance reflecting AUD and oil price sensitivities," the note said. Rio Tinto's stock is rated underweight at Morgan Stanley.

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