• Union Bancaire Privee flagged a widening gap between markets pricing disinflation and central banks staying hawkish despite falling oil prices.
• ECB lifted its key rate 25 bps to 2.25%, its first increase since 2023; the Fed dot plot showed half of members expect at least one hike.
• US inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest since April 2023; euro zone inflation held near 3.2%.
• UBP pointed to resilient US consumption and sticky core services ex-housing inflation, with surveys showing firms still planning price rises.
• UBP said AI investment is currently inflationary via chips, power, copper, steel, raising doubts central banks can ease even if oil stays weak.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Union Bancaire Privee UBP SA published the original content used to generate this news brief on July 13, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.