According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin recently showed drastic changes in its supply structure amid price fluctuations. Joo Wedson, founder of the analytical agency Alphractal, pointed out that long-term holders now control about 84% of the total Bitcoin supply in the market. This high level of concentration indicates that supply shortages are increasing, and the market structure is undergoing a fundamental shift.
Judging from the breakdown of the position structure, long-term investors' holdings have reached 5.2 times that of short-term holders, while the share of Bitcoin in short-term holders' hands has fallen to 16%, the lowest since 2016. This means that liquidity resources controlled by traders and speculators are extremely scarce, and large amounts of chips are flowing from short-term players to long-term investors.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this extreme differentiation in position distribution reflects that investors prefer to hold coins rather than sell during market fluctuations, directly leading to a significant reduction in the amount of circulation available for trading.
The imbalance between supply and demand is reshaping the price elasticity mechanism, and historical review shows that this structure is often a precursor to rising prices. After experiencing a decline in June, Bitcoin fell below $58,000 at the end of June, then rebounded to $64,000 driven by a return in institutional interest and improved macroeconomic conditions. Even mild buying pressure can have a significant impact on prices in the context of reduced circulating supply. The last time there was a similar low short-term holding ratio was in 2016, when the price of Bitcoin was below $1,000, then the market began a long bull market and approached an all-time high (ATH) of $20,000 in 2017.
Although historical performance cannot completely replicate the future, the current market pattern dominated by committed long-term investors has many similarities to 2016, particularly the decline in capital inflows and increased willingness to hold exchanges. Key variables in future trends are whether new capital can enter the market and how long-term holders can respond to changes in regulatory policies and fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment. If long-term holders' sentiment reverses, large amounts of bitcoins may be released, breaking the current delicate balance, and tight supply is still a core structural factor determining market dynamics.