Perfectly buying every major Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle bottom may, in fact, not be the optimal Bitcoin investment strategy, according to a prominent market commentator.
Two Hypothetical Bitcoin Investment Strategies
In a podcast on July 12, crypto commentator Lark Davis compared two hypothetical strategies using approximately $20,000 in total capital.
The first strategy involved purchasing one Bitcoin at each of four major cycle lows, about $2 in 2011, roughly $200 in 2015, around $3,200 in 2018 and around $16,000 in 2022. This would have accumulated four Bitcoin for a total investment of roughly $20,000.
With Bitcoin trading near $63,000 currently, the holdings would be worth about $252,000 marking an approximate 13x return.
At Bitcoin’s 2025 peak near $126,000, the position would have been valued at approximately $504,000.
However, Davis said spreading the same $20,000 across monthly Bitcoin purchases from late 2011 through July 2026 would have accumulated approximately 10 BTC.
At current prices, that position would be worth about $630,000, substantially outperforming the theoretically perfect cycle-bottom strategy.
Buy Now Or Wait For $40,000?
Davis repeated the comparison over a more recent period beginning with Bitcoin’s 2018 cycle bottom.
Investing $10,000 at the 2018 low near $3,200 and another $10,000 at the 2022 low near $16,000 would have accumulated approximately 3.75 BTC.
Davis said the findings challenge the idea that investors must wait for Bitcoin to reach a particular level, such as $40,000, before deploying capital.
Waiting for $40,000 would allow an investor with $20,000 to purchase 0.5 BTC, compared with approximately 0.317 BTC at $63,000. But that strategy only works if Bitcoin reaches the lower target and the investor has the conviction to buy when sentiment deteriorates.
"If $40,000 never arrives, you’ve held cash through a rally while waiting for an entry that never came," he said.
Using an assumed 30% compound annual growth rate over the next decade, Davis estimated Bitcoin could reach approximately $868,500 by July 2036.
Under that scenario, investing $20,000 at $63,000 would grow to roughly $275,000 and investing the same amount at $40,000 would grow to approximately $434,000.
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