The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the travel chain is catalyzed by factors such as benefiting from policy support, a marginal decline in travel costs, and an increase in leisure time during the peak season. The subsequent boom is expected to be better than previously pessimistic expectations, and targets related to the travel chain may usher in a valuation repair. Previously, expectations for summer were low or improved, and fall vacation was promoted in the future. Under the impact of various factors such as oil prices, consumption capacity, and weather, the market's previous expectations for the second quarter were low. With the steady decline in oil prices and the gradual implementation of weather factors and the gradual visualization and quantification of their effects, tourism has shown high resilience and maintained structural growth. Subsequent summer performance may be better than pessimistic expectations.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
Cultural tourism support policies have been implemented intensively, and the support attitude for service consumption is firm.
① Recently, the “15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a Strong Tourism Country” has been fully implemented, clarifying the cultural tourism industry's position as a pillar of service consumption, and setting the tone for the long-term development of the industry in terms of business format innovation, digital upgrading, and infrastructure improvement.
② At the same time, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism recently launched the national summer cultural tourism consumption season, with a special subsidy of over 450 million yuan, covering various consumption scenarios such as accommodation, tickets, cultural tourism packages, etc., and supporting tens of thousands of special cultural tourism activities to effectively activate residents' consumption potential.
③ Supporting policies such as inbound tourism facilitation, cultural tourism integration, etc. continue to be implemented to form a comprehensive industrial support system.
④ The policy on services and travel consumption covers various segments such as hotels, OTAs, and scenic spots, and will help optimize the industry's supply structure and improve the competitive landscape.
Marginal improvements in oil prices have reduced travel costs.
① Previously, the rise in fuel prices led to a significant increase in air ticket prices, which hampered business travel and travel performance. The recent decline in overall oil prices has led to a reduction in domestic refined oil prices, and fuel surcharges for civil aviation have declined at the same time.
② The fall in fuel prices has contributed significantly to both short-distance travel and long-distance high-value planned travel: the drop in fuel prices boosts the desire of families to travel by car; the decline in air tickets favors the recovery of demand for long-term high-value travel.
③ In the previous phase of rising transportation costs, accommodation and destination consumption were squeezed by rising transportation prices, and room for price increases was limited. As transportation costs fall, hotel and destination spending may return to the previous trend of steady price increases. Hotels and OTAs will simultaneously benefit from an increase in passenger traffic, as well as a steady rise in accommodation prices.
Previously, expectations for summer were low or improved, and fall vacation was promoted in the future.
① Under the impact of various factors such as oil prices, consumption capacity, and weather, the market's previous expectations for the second quarter were low. With the steady decline in oil prices and the gradual implementation of weather factors and the gradual visualization and quantification of their effects, tourism has shown high resilience and maintained structural growth. Subsequent summer performance may be better than pessimistic expectations.
② The increase in leisure time has indeed clearly solved the previous bottlenecks in service consumption and travel demand, and spring break has brought about an obvious increase in travel demand. It is expected that subsequent fall vacations will continue to contribute significantly to the increase in tourism and optimize the off-peak season structure throughout the year.
③ The implementation and standardized implementation of systems such as false peak leave and subsequent paid leave will significantly optimize the spatial and temporal distribution of travel, substantially enhance the travel experience and actual purchasing power, and promote the normalization of the passenger flow structure.
Risk warning: Extreme weather disrupts the pace of summer travel, the recovery of residents' cultural tourism consumption falls short of expectations, homogenization competition in the industry intensifies, and the pace of implementation of cultural tourism support policies is lagging behind.