The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that in June, passenger car production in the narrow sense of the word was 2.34 million units, -3% year-on-year, +6% month-on-month; 2.36 million units were wholesale, -6% year-on-year, and +6% month-on-month. Tram going overseas has brought new growth space and financial support to the entire vehicle. The industry's exports are expected to continue to exceed expectations. Sanjie Geely (00175), Zero Sports (09868), and BYD (01211) will continue to be recommended. The recent valuation investment cost ratio has been highlighted.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
Exports continued to exceed expectations in June, and domestic demand is expected to remain average
Passenger car wholesale sales in June were 2.36 million units, -6% year over year and +6% month over month. Wholesale of 6.69 million vehicles in 2Q, -5% year-on-year, +14% month-on-month. Among them, passenger car exports continued to reach new highs of 880,000 units, +76% year over month, and new energy exports close to 500,000 units, +1.5 times year on year; retail sales are expected to be about 1.69 million units, -19% year over year, and +15% month on month. With strong export performance, overall wholesale sales are still declining year on year.
1) Exports: 880,000 vehicles were exported this month, continuing to exceed expectations, reaching record highs of +76% year over year and +9% month over month. Of these, 500,000 new energy vehicles were exported, +1.5 times the previous year, and +18% month-on-month. Passenger car exports surpassed 700,000 units for the first time in March and April, and surpassed 800,000 units in May and June, reflecting the continuous improvement of the global competitiveness of Chinese brands during the year; exports of new energy sources went from a previous high of close to 300,000 vehicles in December last year, and have been growing month-on-month since March to nearly 500,000 units in June.
2) Tram: 1.48 million units were sold this month, +19% year over month, +10% month-on-month. The wholesale new energy penetration rate of 63% continued to reach a record monthly high, +13.4PP year-on-year, and +2.2PP month-on-month.
3) Autonomy: Autonomous car companies wholesale 1.78 million vehicles in June, +7% YoY, +7% month-on-month, autonomous accounting for 75.5%, +8.5PP year-on-year, +0.3PP month-on-month.
4) Price: In late June, the industry discount rate declined month-on-month (mainly for oil trucks): the discount rate was 9.4%, -1.0PP (6/25) year-on-year, and -0.1PP (6/10) month-on-month.
5) Inventory: 230,000 vehicles are stored through the corresponding terminal channel. The historical season is 0-50,000 vehicles, which shows that OEMs are cautious in wholesale.
Full year outlook
The export performance in the first half of the year, especially tram exports, continued to exceed expectations, and leapfrog to new highs. The reason behind this is that the increase in overseas sales this year was not linear: ① the increase in car companies and models, ② a sharp increase in channels, ③ an increase in store inventory ratio (to prepare goods), and ④ a rapid increase in store demand. Looking back, there is still a high possibility that the number of exports will continue to exceed expectations. The bank continues to revise its annual export forecast to 9.48 million vehicles. In terms of domestic sales, due to factors such as rising oil prices and price increases for new cars, domestic sales performance has been weak since this year. The bank's retail growth rate for the whole year is expected to be -13%. Comprehensive retail, exports, and inventory changes. Overall passenger car wholesale is expected to be -3% year-on-year.
Risk warning: macroeconomics and domestic consumption are lower than expected, automobile exports are lower than expected, NEV sales are lower than expected, raw material prices fluctuate, etc.