The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that there is still plenty of room for improvement in the field of advanced first-line lung cancer treatment. On the one hand, a large number of patients have limited survival benefits; on the other hand, there is room to improve the replacement rate of PD-1 monoclonal antibody as the foundation for other treatments such as chemotherapy. Global pharmaceutical companies are completing the layout along the lines of PD-1 monoclonal antibody plus ADC and PD-1 dual antibody. Among them, in the PD-1 monoclonal antibody+ADC route, Colombotai (06690) and its partner MSD have both indication coverage and a high probability of success in the SAC-TMT layout, which is expected to win in this route. At the same time, MSD has a strategic backbone in the combined use of PD-1 dual antibodies and sAC-TMT. It is recommended to focus on global R&D progress of Colombotech's Sac-TMT.
The main views of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:
K-drug has been approved to treat first-line lung cancer using the “split and surround” model, but there is still plenty of room for upgrade
Pabolizumab (overseas trade name Keytruda, K drug for short) has sales of more than 30 billion US dollars in 2025, making it the “drug king” of global cancer. Drug K was initially approved to treat first-line lung cancer in 2016 until April 2019. After four approvals, it gradually expanded the number of people covered by first-line lung cancer. Overall, PD-1 monoclonal antibodies have triumphed in the first-tier lung cancer market. Judging from the real world first-line lung cancer treatment data in the US, the usage rate of treatment containing PD-1 monoclonal antibody in all first-line lung cancer patients in 2022 was about 76%. However, there are differences in efficacy indicators and penetration rates in different subgroups. In particular, there is still room for improvement in patients with low PD-L1 expression and squamous cell carcinoma.
The new Phase III window for PD-1 monoclonal antibodies and ADC is closing, and Collumbotai and MSD have completed the card slot
From a global perspective, companies such as AstraZeneca, MSD, Gilead, and Pfizer have successively carried out first-line lung cancer ADC combined with PD-1 monoclonal antibody global phase III studies from 2022 to 2025, with Trop2 as the main target. Considering the potential cross-resistance mechanism in the payload of existing ADCs, and that AstraZeneca's AVANZAR study will read data at 26H2, the bank believes that the time window for newly starting the ADC+PD-1 monoclonal antibody global phase III study may have closed, and the pattern of this segmented route may converge.
Sac-TMT is expected to win in the ADC+PD-1 monoclonal antibody pattern
Colombotte revealed Optitrop-Lung05 data at the 2026 ASCO conference. First-line treatment of advanced nsCLC with sAC-TMT with pabolizumab significantly improved PFS compared with pabolizumab alone: MPFS did not reach VS 5.7 months in the whole population, HR = 0.35; HR = 0.28 for the non-squamous cell carcinoma subgroup, and HR = 0.44 for the squamous cell carcinoma subgroup. OS also showed a trend of benefiting, with HR = 0.55. Current data shows that Dato-DXD has hidden drug safety risks. Gilead Trodelvy's first-line lung cancer phase III research has come to an end. In the future, SAC-TMT is expected to become the leading trop2 ADC in the field of lung cancer, leading the pattern of treatment with PD-1 monoclonal antibodies.
Risk warning: risk of R&D failure, risk of product commercial sales falling short of expectations, risk of industry growth falling short of expectations, risk of uncertain hypothetical parameters caused by technological iteration.