The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that based on judging the supply and demand pattern of the pig breeding industry, the current pig breeding sector has gradually moved from the bottom of the cycle to a recovery range. Looking ahead to the future market, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to gradually improve as losses drive the removal of production capacity for sows, laying the foundation for a new round of price increases in 2027. It is recommended to focus on large-scale leading enterprises with cost advantages and steady cash flow.
The main views of Fangzheng Securities are as follows:
Release volume: The overall listing volume of key listed pig companies continued to decline month-on-month in June
According to the June pig sales report of listed pig companies, 14 listed pig companies released a total of 14.05 million pigs in June, -5.6% compared to the previous month. Among the companies that showed a month-on-month increase, Tiankang Biotech (+51.8%), Lihua shares (+22.2%), and Zhenghong Technology (+15.9%) had higher month-on-month increases; Jin Xinnong (-36.1%), Jingji Zhinong (-29.3%), and Muyuan shares (-9.5%) had the highest month-on-month declines. The bank believes that the number of pig companies listed on the market continued to decline month-on-month in June, mainly due to the easing of pressure on companies' supply, which could be due to a decrease in the number of pigs listed.
Key listed pig companies released a year-on-year ratio of -12.7% of pigs in June
Of the 14 key listed pig companies, 6 had positive year-on-year sales. Among them, Tiankang Biology (+64.4%), Zhengbang Technology (+40.0%), and Tianbang Food (+33.1%) had significant year-on-year increases; Zhenghong Technology (-61.5%), Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (-17.3%), and Wen's shares (-14.5%) had the highest year-on-year declines. Since Muyuan shares account for a relatively large share of listings, after excluding its influence, the remaining 13 key pig companies listed +1.3% year-on-year in June. Compared with 2025, the cumulative number of pig companies listed in 2026 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in January-June, and the cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.3% excluding Muyuan. The bank believes that it is mainly due to the gradual effect of early production capacity regulation policies, adjustments in the pace of listing of leading companies, and the high base effect in the same period in 2025, and the inertial growth momentum of the industry weakens marginally.
Listed body weight
The bank estimates that the average number of pigs released by key pig companies in June decreased by 0.87% month-on-month. The average weight of pigs sold by key listed pig companies was about 124 kg/head, down from month to month. Among them, the average listing weight of Huatong shares (+4.95%) increased significantly; Tianbang Foods (-3.05%) and Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (-2.83%) saw a significant drop in listing weight. Key listed pig companies all declined sequentially in June. The bank believes that this was mainly due to adjustments in the pace of listing on the breeding side during the period of fluctuation at the bottom of pig prices.
Average sales price
The average price of pigs sold by 13 key listed pig companies in June was 9.52 yuan/kg, 1.77% of the previous month. The bank believes that the slight decline in pig prices in June is mainly due to the fact that the supply and demand pattern is still in a game stage: on the supply side, after experiencing centralized listing, the pace of listing pig companies in June has slowed down, but the sources of large pigs that were banned in the early stages and secondary fattening pigs have been released one after another, and market supply pressure is still there; on the demand side, demand for pork during the off-season consumption in summer is weak, and terminals are not going well. Strong supply and demand weakened, and pig prices fell slightly month-on-month in June.
Risk warning: risk of feed price fluctuations; risk of environmental policy changes; risk of epidemic spread; risk of short-term price fluctuations exacerbating the risk of short-term price fluctuations.