The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that there is a strong correlation between the amount of fresh and introduced chicken seedlings in the current year or the following year, the price of chicken seedlings produced by parents in the following year, and the correlation with the price of chicken surrogates the following year, and the correlation with the price of chicken surrogates and chicken prices is weak. At the end of 2025, France was affected by bird flu. It is undecided when the US will resume introduction. From January to May 2026, China's white feather ancestral introduction was interrupted, which can be compared to the extent that introduction was blocked in 2022. French introduction resumed one after another in June; from January to May 2026, China's white feather ancestors renewed 352,000 units, which is the lowest level in the same period since 2022. The bank expects that the suspension of this introduction will support the price of chicken seedlings for parent generation 2026-2027, and at the same time benefit the price of high-quality commercial chicken seedlings in 2027, and also support the prices of chicken and chicken.
The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:
Avian influenza has repeatedly interfered with the introduction, and the proportion of domestic production has risen to 34.5%
Before 2021, our country relied on imports for white feather broilers. In order to change this passive situation, companies represented by Shengnong are actively involved in white feather broiler breeding work. In December 2021, 3 new domestic white feather chicken breeds were approved by the “National Livestock and Poultry Genetic Resources Commission”; in 2021-2025, the number of domestic white feather chicken ancestral renewals rose steadily from 131,600 sets to 543,700 sets, and the proportion of domestic production rose from 10.6% to 34.5%. Among them, Shengze 901 ancestral renewal volume rose from 131,600 sets to 281,900 sets, and Shengze 901 accounts for more than 50% of domestic production. From 2022 to 2026, there were successive outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the United States, New Zealand, and France, and the amount introduced by our ancestors fluctuated greatly.
Breeding chicken stocks and parent surrogate sales have been at the highest level in the same period since 2019
Week 26 of 2026 (June 29 to July 5): 1.6661 million sets of chickens raised from generation to generation, the highest level since 2019; 653,700 sets of reserve ancestral breeding chickens, which is the median level for the same period since 2019; 23.206 million sets of surrogate chickens kept by birth parents and 16.697 million sets of chickens raised by backup parents, all at a high level in the same period since 2019. According to monthly data, from January to May 2026, parent-generation chicken seedlings were at the highest level since 2016; judging from weekly data, in the 26th week of 2026 (June 29 to July 5), parental chicken seedlings sold 1.759,800 sets, the highest in the same period since 2019.
The price of chicken seedlings has been high in recent years, and the prices of broiler and chicken products are still low
From January to May 2026, the average price of chicken seedlings for parents was 49.2 yuan/set, and the average price in May was 50.96 yuan/set, which is the highest level in the same period since 2018; in the 26th week of 2026 (June 29 to July 5), the price of chicken seedlings for parents was 54.08 yuan/set, an increase of 14.6% over the previous year, which is basically the same as the same period in 2023. From January to May 2026, the average price of commercial chicken seedlings was 2.9 yuan/feather, and the average price in May was 3.35 yuan/feather, which is the highest level in the same period since 2018; in the 26th week of 2026 (June 29 to July 5), the price of commercial chicken seedlings was 2.59 yuan/bird, up 121.8% year-on-year, the highest in the same period since 2019. Since 2026, the price of white feather broiler and chicken products have remained low in the same period in recent years. The average price of 1H2026 white feather broiler and chicken products is 7.4 yuan/kg and 9.1 yuan/kg, all of which have been low since 2018.
Multiple factors will jointly drive up the price of chicken seedlings in 2026
Since 2026, the price of parent-generation chicken seedlings and the price of commercial chicken seedlings have been high, mainly due to frequent blocking of ancestral breeding, which reduces the production efficiency of breeding chickens, the continuous rise in demand for downstream broiler breeding and slaughter, and the dual support of imports and exports. ① When the renewal of imported ancestral generations is blocked, ancestral enterprises will extend the use cycle of breeding chickens through forced feather exchange, causing subsequent parent and commercial chicken herds to decline in resistance and production efficiency; ② From 2021 to 2025, the number of white feather commercial broilers slaughtered nationwide increased from 6.86 billion to 9.12 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%. Downstream demand for parent and commercial chicken seedlings increased steadily; ③ From January to May 2026, China's chicken export volume was 534,000 tons, compared with the same period, +5.2.5%. Chicken imports amounted to 270,000 tons, YoY- At 31.5%, the domestic chicken supply and demand pattern improved.
Risk Alerts
The epidemic; sharp rise in raw material prices; policy adjustments.