According to WooFunai, SpaceX (SPCX.US) experienced three consecutive trading days of decline after only a few weeks of listing. The stock price is already approaching the IPO price of 135 US dollars. The market's confidence in the largest IPO in history is facing a severe test. The stock price trend of this rocket and satellite company, which has Musk at the helm, has rapidly changed from fervor in the early days of listing to deep anxiety about the risk of a breakdown.
SpaceX was listed on the NASDAQ on June 12, and the closing price for the first day was fixed at $160.95, setting the biggest financing record in US IPO history. However, market performance then took a sharp turn. The stock price fell 2.2% on Tuesday to close at $136.08 per share, just $1 short of the issue price of $135 last month. Since its peak, the stock's cumulative decline was about one-third, causing the market value to evaporate by nearly $850 billion. KenmaHoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, pointed out that the lifting of the ban on insider shareholding in the next few months will bring a continuous influx of stock supply, and the market needs to pay close attention to whether the demand side can effectively handle it. According to Bloomberg data, after excluding special purpose acquisition companies, the overall weighted average return on US IPOs in 2026 fell to 5.3%. SpaceX was one of the main driving factors, and the group's overall return was only half of the S&P 500 index's performance over the same period.
According to data compiled by WooFunai, this high volatility is not an exception in recent technology IPOs, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards overvalued IPOs.
The market's concerns about SpaceX stem not only from short-term stock price trends, but also from the double pressure on its valuation level and stock supply. In terms of valuation, SpaceX currently expects a market-sales ratio of more than 30 times, ranking among the top constituent stocks in the NASDAQ 100 Index, only slightly lower than Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR.US). Skeptics believe that this valuation level is difficult to provide a sufficient margin of safety for the stock price.
At the same time, the company is facing a long lockdown period, and insider shareholding will be lifted in batches over the next few months and will enter the market one after another. KenmaHoney emphasized that continued supply releases will put pressure on stock prices, especially when demand is still uncertain.
Although the overall position of Wall Street analysts is still biased, more than 10 investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, all started coverage with purchase ratings. Currently, more than 80% of analysts recommend buying. The average target price is 236.25 US dollars, which is more than 70% higher than Tuesday's closing price.
However, the divergence between market performance and analysts' expectations reflects investors' cautious sentiment about overvalued IPOs. Bloomberg's analysis of 30 major technology stock IPOs in the past 15 years shows that the average biggest decline in these stocks in the first year of listing reached 55%, indicating that sharp fluctuations in the early stages of IPO listings are common. SpaceX is not the only major IPO this year to fall below the closing price on the first day. Bloomberg data shows that of the 10 largest IPOs this year, the stock prices of 6 have already fallen below the closing level of the first day. The year the record IPOs began was also accompanied by widespread fluctuations.
A fall close to the issue price may also bring about a turning point. For investors who have not been able to participate in the IPO subscription before, around $135 may constitute an attractive entry point. Talley Leger, chief market strategist at WealthConsultingGroup, said he chose to wait and see during the IPO phase because he predicted that SpaceX would later be included in the NASDAQ index, and his company has funds to track the index. Leger said that if the decline continues, he may consider buying individual stocks because he shares the company's vision and goals. SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index just last week through quick inclusion rules. Investors and underwriters will keep a close eye on SpaceX and South Korean chipmaker SKHYNIX Inc. (SKHY.US) The trend of American Depositary Receipts over the next few weeks. The two companies completed record listings in less than a month.
This phenomenon indicates that the market is re-evaluating the pricing logic of overvalued technology stocks. The backlash logic and the trend after the index was incorporated will be a key observation point for the next few weeks.