Ichigo Inc. (TSE:2337) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to JP¥431 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Ichigo reported a serious miss, with revenue of JP¥10b falling a huge 47% short of analyst estimates. The bright side is that statutory earnings per share of JP¥40.11 were in line with forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ichigo from three analysts is for revenues of JP¥107.4b in 2027. If met, it would imply a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.0% to JP¥47.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥99.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥47.55 in 2027. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the modest lift to revenue estimates.
See our latest analysis for Ichigo
Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of JP¥475, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Ichigo, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥490 and the most bearish at JP¥460 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ichigo's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ichigo to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥475, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ichigo going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Ichigo (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.