Saab (OM:SAAB B) has just posted its Q2 2026 scorecard, with revenue of SEK25.5b and basic EPS of SEK3.98, set against trailing twelve month figures of SEK88.2b in revenue and SEK13.20 in EPS that have been growing at 30.4% per year over the past five years and 36.5% over the last year. Over recent quarters, revenue has moved from SEK19.8b in Q2 2025 to SEK27.7b in Q4 2025, then to SEK19.2b in Q1 2026 and SEK25.5b in Q2 2026, while quarterly basic EPS has ranged from SEK1.78 to SEK4.76 across that period. This gives investors a clearer view of how the earnings profile is tracking alongside an 8% trailing net margin, which points to a business where profitability and growth are now front and center.

See our full analysis for Saab.

With the latest quarter on the table, the next step is to see how these revenue, EPS and margin trends line up with the dominant narratives around Saab and where those stories might need updating.

See what the community is saying about Saab

Saab’s 36.5% earnings growth meets richer valuation

• Over the last 12 months, Saab’s earnings have grown 36.5% year over year and 30.4% per year on average over five years, while trailing revenue sits at SEK88.2b and net income at SEK7.1b, giving a trailing net margin of 8% compared with 7.4% a year earlier.
• Supporters of the bullish narrative point to this combination of strong earnings growth and a higher 8% margin as evidence that Saab could sustain above market expansion. However, the data also show that earnings are currently SEK7.1b versus bullish expectations of SEK14.6b by around 2029, so there is still a sizeable gap between today’s performance and the scenario bullish investors are working with.
  • Consensus narrative notes that analysts expect revenue to grow about 19.8% a year and margins to move from roughly 8.0% to 8.5% by 2029, which sits between the current trailing 8% margin and the more optimistic margin lift assumed in the bullish case.
  • What stands out is that even after the 36.5% earnings growth over the last year, the bullish projection would require earnings to more than double from SEK7.1b to SEK14.6b, so readers can judge whether the recent pace feels consistent with that longer term stretch target.

On these numbers, if you want to see how bullish investors connect Saab’s recent 36.5% earnings growth to their long term story, it is worth reading their full thesis in 🐂 Saab Bull Case.

Premium 43x P/E with a DCF gap

• Saab trades on a trailing P/E of about 43x, compared with a European Aerospace & Defense industry average of 30.5x and a peer average of 33.5x, and the supplied DCF fair value of SEK151.24 sits well below the current SEK567 share price and the SEK576.67 analyst consensus target.
• Bears argue that this combination of a richer multiple and a DCF fair value of SEK151.24 versus a SEK567 market price leaves little room for disappointment, especially when consensus expects earnings to reach SEK11.5b by around 2029 and apply a lower 33.8x multiple, which would still embed fairly strong growth assumptions from today’s SEK7.1b level.
  • Critics highlight that even the balanced consensus view, which treats Saab as roughly fairly priced around SEK576.67, still implies a step down from the current 43x P/E to about 33.8x on 2029 earnings, so part of the thesis relies on growth catching up with today’s richer pricing.
  • At the same time, the fact that earnings have been growing at 30.4% per year over five years supports the idea that the company has historically delivered strong growth, which helps explain why some investors are comfortable paying a premium to the DCF fair value.

Skeptical readers who see the 43x P/E and DCF fair value gap as their starting point may find the full cautious case helpful in framing what could go wrong from here 🐻 Saab Bear Case.

Quarterly swings versus smoother 12 month trend

• On a quarterly basis, Saab’s revenue has shifted from SEK19,786m in Q2 2025 to SEK27,697m in Q4 2025, then SEK19,164m in Q1 2026 and SEK25,453m in Q2 2026, while basic EPS over the same stretch moved between SEK1.78 and SEK4.76. Yet on a trailing twelve month basis revenue is SEK88.2b and EPS SEK13.20, which smooths out that volatility into a clearer trend.
• Analysts’ consensus narrative treats this lumpiness as part of the normal pattern for a defense contractor that depends on large contracts, pointing out that forecasts for roughly 15.6% annual revenue growth and 18.17% annual earnings growth are based on the 12 month view of SEK88.2b revenue and SEK7.1b net income rather than any single quarter’s spike or dip.
  • What is interesting is that Q3 2025, with SEK15,871m in revenue and SEK957m in net income, sits well below the most recent Q2 2026 figures. Yet the trailing twelve month numbers still show net income of SEK7.1b, highlighting how quickly a few stronger quarters can influence the rolling picture in a contract driven business.
  • For readers, the key takeaway is that both bullish and bearish narratives lean on these rolling numbers rather than any one quarter, so it helps to cross check claims about long term growth or risk against the SEK88.2b revenue and SEK7.1b net income that actually sit behind today’s 8% net margin.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Saab on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Seen enough of Saab’s mixed signals between growth, valuation and narrative expectations? The quickest way to get off the sidelines is to review the full risk and reward breakdown for yourself in 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There Beyond Saab

Saab’s rich 43x P/E multiple versus both peers and the supplied DCF fair value of SEK151.24 highlights how much optimism is already in the price.

If that kind of valuation stretch makes you cautious, it is worth checking stocks where pricing looks more grounded using the 231 high quality undervalued stocks to quickly spot ideas that may offer more upside for each krona at risk.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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