Afry AB (STO:AFRY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.1% to kr103 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr6.5b, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at kr1.71 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Afry after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, Afry's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be kr25.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 32% to kr9.18. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr25.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr9.81 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Afry
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr141, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Afry, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr200 and the most bearish at kr100.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Afry's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 5.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Afry is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr141, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Afry. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Afry analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Afry that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.