According to a research report published by Goldman Sachs, HSBC Holdings will announce the results for the second quarter of 2026 on August 4. It is expected that the basic profit before tax will reach 10.2 billion US dollars, up 25% year on year and 2% month on month, 4% higher than market expectations. The bank pointed out that the month-on-month increase was mainly due to the reduction in credit costs to 40 basis points. Additional provisions related to the Middle East conflict are not expected, and the increase in provisions in the first quarter was also affected by one-time credit-related expenses. Furthermore, banks' net interest income is expected to increase 3% month-on-month, driven by a slight increase in interbank interest rates in Hong Kong. The bank continued that in addition to forecasting quarterly performance, the market focus will continue to focus on wealth management business, particularly the latest developments in cross-border regulatory policies and their impact on wealth capital inflows. In terms of capital and shareholder returns, after being suspended for three quarters due to the acquisition of Hang Seng, Foreign Exchange Control is expected to resume share repurchases this quarter. The bank predicts that the second-quarter results will announce a share repurchase plan of 1.5 billion US dollars. After completion, the Tier 1 capital ratio for common shares will remain at a steady level of about 14%. Goldman Sachs raised FX's earnings forecast per share for the 2026-2029 fiscal year by up to 1.6%, mainly reflecting a more favorable interest rate outlook. It raised the 12-month target price from HK$165 to HK$181, maintaining a “buy” rating.

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