The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that due to the recent rapid decline in lithium prices, upstream sales reluctance has increased, and price increases are obvious; at the same time, downstream procurement prices remain above 160,000 yuan/ton; at the same time, downstream procurement is low. Material factories are more positive in purchasing sentiment below 150,000 yuan/ton, but procurement behavior is still cautious, and the overall procurement behavior is mainly based on immediate demand. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production declined, and some lithium salt plants were undergoing maintenance as planned, resulting in a significant reduction in spodumene production lines. On the demand side, the July production schedule is expected to continue to grow. The operating rate of the material factory is expected to remain high, and it is expected to increase by more than 5% month-on-month. It is expected that production will continue to grow positively in August. The off-season will not be easy. The peak season can be expected in the fourth quarter.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Lithium: According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of industrial grade lithium carbonate this week was 148,000 yuan/ton, down 4.5% from last week; the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan/ton, down 4.4% from last week
On the supply side, lithium carbonate production is expected to drop slightly this week. The main reason is that some lithium salt plants have experienced short-term volume reductions due to tight raw materials and maintenance, but the new production line is still in the climbing phase, hedging part of the reduction, and overall supply remains stable. Zimbabwean lithium concentrate has been shipped and is expected to be concentrated in Hong Kong in mid-late July. Signals to resume production at the Jiangxi mining end and overseas mines have increased, and long-term supply increases are expected to heat up. In terms of inventory, inventory is expected to remain depleted this week. Shipments from the lithium salt factory manager are stable, and the reluctance to sell loose orders has led to the accumulation of factory inventory. Traders continue to ship, and downstream procurement is more active at dips. Inventory is mostly transferred from traders to downstream, and downstream raw material stocks are sufficient. The number of futures warehouse orders is still relatively high, and the centralized cancellation window is close to the end of July. The volume of warehouse orders on the previous trading day was 42,420 tons. On the demand side, downstream demand remains high, and the July production schedule is expected to continue to grow. The operating rate of the lithium iron phosphate plant remains high and is expected to increase by about 7% month-on-month. According to a sample survey of 26 battery companies in Baichuan Yingfu, in July 2026, the total production schedule of Chinese battery companies was 296.6 GWh, an increase of 7.83% over the previous month. The number of inquiries from downstream material manufacturers is increasing due to low prices, but inventory replenishment is still cautious; actual transactions are mainly based on immediate demand. On the resource side, the significance of autonomous and controllable domestic lithium resources is highlighted. It is recommended to focus on Yongxing Materials, China Mining Resources, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, etc.
Nickel: This week's LME nickel price was 1,7045 US dollars/ton, up 2.3% from last week; the nickel price for the previous period was 12,8890 yuan/ton, up 3.7% from last week
This week, SHFE's nickel inventory was 110,200 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 274,300 tons, with a total inventory of 384,500 tons, up 2.9% from last week. On the supply side, the overall domestic supply of nickel sulphate declined this week, and the average operating rate of the industry decreased. Due to pressure on costs and profits, some domestic nickel sulfate manufacturers reduced their workload and started construction. Individual manufacturers stopped production, and the overall circulation supply in the market was sufficient. On the demand side, downstream ternary precursors of nickel sulfate are still in low season this week. Companies only need to purchase to maintain safety, and there are no large-scale early inventory replenishment actions. Lithium iron phosphate continues to divert market share. The increase in high-nickel materials is limited. Precursor manufacturers are pressuring prices to take goods, and spot loose orders have been sold out as a whole. The electroplating industry just needed to run smoothly. It only supported the market slightly, making it difficult to hedge against the weakening demand brought about by the weak battery side. Nickel suggests focusing on Huayou Cobalt, Shengtun Mining, etc.
Rare earths & magnetic materials: rare earth prices fluctuate this week
As of this Thursday, the average price of praseodymium oxide market was 767,500 yuan/ton, the same price as last Friday; the average price of dysprosium oxide market was 1,425,000 yuan/ton, the same price as last Friday; the average price of terbium oxide was 6.875 million yuan/ton, down 0.72% from last Friday's price. Judging from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the supply side continues to be tight. Recently, some raw ore separation companies have been affected by group consolidation, etc., and construction has been suspended, waste recycling companies have stopped and cut production in the early stages. Production continues to be low, production increases are limited, and costs are high and strong. Overall oxide supply-side performance is tight. Metals are relatively adequate, but manufacturers have strong shipping prices and little shipping pressure. Demand side expectations are improving. The downstream industry entered the traditional low season in the second quarter, and the market's expectations for a recovery in demand in the third quarter are gradually increasing. Currently, most large magnetic material companies rely on the support of Changxie's orders, and production arrangements are still stable; although new export orders are likely, there is still repeated tension between terminal purchase prices and raw material costs. It is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Yunsheng, Jinli Permanent Magnet, etc.
risk analysis
1. The global economy has declined sharply, and consumption has shrunk in a cliff-style manner. 2. US inflation got out of control, the Fed's monetary tightening exceeded expectations, and a strong dollar suppressed the price of equity assets. 3. Consumption growth in the domestic new energy sector fell short of expectations, and consumption in the real estate sector continued to be sluggish.