The Zhitong Finance App learned that Societe Generale Securities released a research report saying that fresh snacks are an emerging business format with a high growth rate. The bank believes that in the context of systemic traffic contraction in supermarkets, it has taken on the group of consumers seeking a “fresh/experiential sense” after the rapid expansion of mass sales. Currently, the “top four” of the industry are racing on the ground, and many brands are testing the waters across borders. The current model for single stores is quite bright, but the style of play and expansion paths have not yet been defined. The difficulty of sustainable business expansion is the stability of the short-term guarantee supply chain and the uniqueness of large single products. Currently, if calculated using high-traffic store data, the ceiling can't keep up with mass-selling snacks, we still need to look at the refining breakthroughs in the subsequent single-store model and the template paradigm for standardizing the supply chain. Focus on mass sales companies' attempts to expand their business format.
Societe Generale Securities's main views are as follows:
The systematic contraction of supermarkets has led to traffic overflow, and some traffic faced redistribution after a period of rapid expansion of mass sales
Judging from the background of the birth of the business format, the background of the rise of fresh snacks is still the systematic contraction of traditional retail, such as the reduction of Da Runfa stores from 602 to 507 from 2022 to 2024, Yonghui closing 232 stores in 2024, etc., and supermarket traffic spills over to e-commerce, mass sales discount stores, etc. Looking at the share of casual snacks by GMV channel in 2019-2024, the supermarket channel dropped from 49.2% to 45.8%, and the share of specialty store channels increased from 7.6% to 11.2%, while fresh snacks were actually handled by a group of consumers who sought “fresh/experience” after the rapid expansion of mass sales.
The essence of the business format is to do an experiential business. Fresh snacks are an independent retail format that has rapidly emerged on the negative first floor/B1 floor of shopping malls in Tier 1 and 2 cities in the past two years. The customer base is mainly ready-made short warranty, 24-48 hour short warranty+ready-to-making+visualization as the core (actual product shelf life is mostly within 30 days), and is a complex store that combines snacks/baking/drinks/freshly cooked food/fresh fruit. The store area is mostly 200-400 square meters, with a customer unit price of 45-60 yuan, about double that of traditional mass-sold snacks), and the customer base is mainly 18-35 years old.
Many players tested the waters, and the benchmark single store shines, but the style of play is yet to be defined
The top four raced horses on the field, and there were frequent cross-border tests. The size of the fresh snack industry expanded from less than 5 billion yuan in 2020 to about 18 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of over 40%. The competitive pattern is a regional “top four” racecourse, all of which are directly or semi-directly-managed, with no sample of 10,000 stores yet. There are several major players in Quanshi as of June 2026, more than 100 companies under Black Classic, with plans to open 600-1,000 stores in 2026), Yicli Nutco Shenyang, as of May 2026 (about 100 companies directly managed by May 2026) Mom actually As of April 2026, there are 52 companies, and plans are to open 200 in 2026+), and others have also tested the waters across borders, such as Zebi, Youyou, Yifen, Chayan, and Haidilao.
The single-store economy is “bright but the style of play is undefined.” In the past year, the average monthly sales volume of a single store was 1.5 million, the benchmark store was 4 million, and the gross margin was about 35%. In September 2025, Yili opened its first store in Beijing, achieving 6.2 million sales in the first month. The gross profit of the industry is about 30-40%, and the return period is expected to be 7-18 months. However, the current single store data stability is not high, and the expansion model of the style of play has not yet been defined.
The supply chain is the life and death line of this business, and the uniqueness of large single products is a difficult point. The loss rate of current short-term warranty is significantly higher than that of mass sales, and daily distribution is required. The cold chain radius transportation coverage is 200-300 kilometers, and one-place factory construction services are just what is needed; at the same time, the risk of homogenization is already showing in reality the same foundry as Jinpelmen's shrimp chips).
The ceiling and the end are still hard to decide. According to Frost & Sullivan's data, the reason why snack sales can reach 10,000 level stores is that 59% of the stores are in the county and townships), the shelf life of most categories is 12 months), and standardized distribution is actually 48 warehouses/300 km/24 hours), yet the three routes of fresh snacks are temporarily impassable. Due to the high traffic requirements of fresh snack stores, if you calculate the number of stores that can be opened, the ceiling is still low compared to mass sales. As to whether a single brand can be created in the future, the scale of 10,000 stores with a single brand also depends more on the success of refining optimized single-store models such as street stores, and the degree of standardization of the supply chain.
Risk warning: Non-standard food safety risks in the supply chain, leveraged management risks brought about by the liberalization of franchising in the context of the lack of stability in the single-store model of some brands.