HC Wainwright raised its price forecast for Arcus Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ:RCUS), citing the aggressive push into 1L clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) development.
Arcus Expands Casdatifan Development Strategy In First-Line ccRCC
In the first quarter press release, the company said its development strategy is designed to generate evidence to secure casdatifan as a backbone therapy in ccRCC.
The company is aggressively executing on a holistic strategy to embed casdatifan into the treatment paradigm, including in combination with the most commonly used regimen in the 1L setting, anti-PD-1 plus anti-CTLA-4.
Arcus is now enrolling a cohort in the Phase 1/1b ARC-20 study to generate the dataset that will support the initiation of the corresponding Phase 3 study at year-end 2026.
Analyst Emily Bodnar raised the price forecast from $32 to $45, with a Buy rating.
The updated price includes casdatifan revenues for the broad 1L ccRCC opportunity, in addition to previously modeled revenues in 1L post-IO patients and 2L post-IO patients.
Analyst Bodnar assumes around $2.2 billion in peak global unadjusted revenues for 1L, and continues to assume approximately $2 billion in peak global unadjusted revenues for the post-IO setting.
Analyst Sees Differentiation Despite Early-Stage Development Risk
HC Wainwright assumes a lower POS of 30% for 1L ccRCC given this program is early in development with less clinical evidence after the LITESPARK-012 trial of Keytruda plus Lenvima plus Welireg combo did not meet its primary endpoint.
Though analyst Bodnar continues to believe that casdatifan is differentiated from Merck & Co Inc.’s (NYSE:MRK) Welireg (belzutifan) with much greater potency and PD effect, which has contributed to potentially best-in-class efficacy in later-line settings.
RCUS Price Action: Arcus Biosciences shares were up 4.71% at $27.95 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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