The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shanxi Securities released a research report saying that electricity and coal prices have entered a reasonable range, supply is restrained, and coal prices are supported during peak season. The off-peak season changes, and the focus of coal stock trading in peak summer may gradually shift from coking coal to thermal coal or coal-to-electricity integration. The mid-quarter market trading style focused on performance, and coal stocks had a foundation for recovery after undergoing adjustments.
The main views of Shanxi Securities are as follows:
The volume and price of imported coal rose sharply in June '26
In terms of import volume, 225 million tons of coal were imported from January to June '26, with a cumulative growth rate of 1.7%. In June, 42.78 million tons of coal were imported, up 29.48% year on year and 28.62% month on month. By type of coal, the import volume of the four major types of coal was divided. Among them, only anthracite declined year on year, and all four types of coal increased month-on-month. Thermal coal increased sharply year on year, mainly due to the sharp increase in Australia; imports of coking coal from Australia, Russia and Mongolia increased year on year; lignite surged year on year, related to the increase in Indonesian imports; and changes in anthracite mainly came from Russia. In terms of price, from January to June '26, the average price of imported coal reached 80 US dollars/ton, up 8.70% from last year; in June, the import price of all types of coal reached 90 US dollars/ton, up 24.09% from the same period last year. By type of coal, the import price of each type of coal rose by varying degrees compared to the same period last year. Among them, anthracite increased the most.
The main driving force behind the sharp rise in the volume and price of imported coal in June was the domestic gap
Since the mine disaster in Shanxi, domestic coal supply has shrunk markedly, and the gap has led to a rise in coal prices. The gap between supply and demand also boosted demand for imported coal. The increase in imports in June also led to a correction in imported coal volume, which had contracted overall in the previous June. Whether imports of coal will continue to grow in the future mainly focuses on the continuing impact of safety inspections on domestic production.
The main sources of incremental growth are Australia and Indonesia
Australia's exports to China increased mainly from thermal coal in June; in addition, coking coal also increased by a certain margin. Among them, the most important marginal change is cost coverage. The relatively low volume of Australian coal imports in the early period is also related to low domestic coal prices. As domestic coal prices continue to strengthen, the current level of domestic coal prices covers Australian coal costs more, so there is a quantitative basis for Australian coal. As Indonesia gradually raised RKAB quotas and demand increased, lignite growth was in line with expectations.
Risk warning: Domestic demand fell short of expectations, domestic supply increased significantly, and international coal prices fell sharply