J.P. Morgan Chase released a recent report stating that there is currently no evidence that companies in emerging markets are facing a widespread wave of default. The data shows that so far this year, the default rate of high-yield corporate bonds in emerging markets is 2.5%, which is significantly lower than the 4.3% previously forecast. J.P. Morgan analyst Alyssa Meyers and her team said in the report that the risk of default for the rest of 2026 depends more on “timing and classification rather than the discovery of new pressures.” The bank notes that most major default events have already occurred, such as Brazil's Laizen and Brascom's debt restructuring cases, which indicated the direction for the second half of the year and made Latin America a major contributor to the default. By contrast, default rates in Asia, emerging Europe, and the Middle East and Africa are far below J.P. Morgan's forecast for 2026. Analysts believe that the remaining risks in these regions are all “non-systemic risks.” Although J.P. Morgan maintained its 4.3% full-year default rate forecast, it indicated that the forecast was at a downside risk. The report emphasizes that “there is no evidence that emerging market companies are generally experiencing a wave of default.”

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