Last week, you might have seen that F-Secure Oyj (HEL:FSECURE) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.3% to €1.89 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.02, some 27% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €40m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from F-Secure Oyj's four analysts is for revenues of €156.0m in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 2.8% to €0.10 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €154.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.12 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
See our latest analysis for F-Secure Oyj
The consensus price target held steady at €2.05, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic F-Secure Oyj analyst has a price target of €2.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €2.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that F-Secure Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.4% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that F-Secure Oyj is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €2.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for F-Secure Oyj going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for F-Secure Oyj that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.