Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) rallied above $66,000 to its highest level in over a month, as a technical trifecta that has historically marked every major cycle bottom flashed on the monthly chart.
What Is The Macro Bottom Signal Showing?
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified three conditions on Bitcoin’s monthly chart that have aligned at every major cycle bottom since 2015.
The three signals:
- Monthly RSI dropping to approximately 43.65
- Chande Momentum Oscillator cooling to around -71
- Price testing the 50-month moving average
Last month, Bitcoin’s correction to $58,000 triggered all three simultaneously for the first time since December 2022.
How Has This Signal Performed Historically?
The trifecta has appeared three times before, each time marking a durable accumulation zone rather than a precise price floor:
- 2015 — Signal printed at $235 in March. Price briefly dipped to $162 before an 8,300% expansion followed
- 2019 — Signal triggered at $3,333 in January, just above the $3,124 absolute low set a month prior, preceding a 1,911% rally
- 2022 — Signal fired at $16,270 in December near the 50-month moving average, launching a 675% rally
Ali Martinez noted that on-chain metrics including MVRV and CVDD still point to a potential cycle bottom between $40,000 and $50,000, leaving open the possibility that price sweeps lower before the next leg higher.
The technical signal historically printed slightly above the absolute bottom rather than at the exact low.
What Is Driving Tuesday’s Rally?
Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported Monday that President Donald Trump agreed to a crucial ethics provision for the crypto market structure bill, with the specific language shared with a group of Senate Republicans.
The ethics provision has been the primary obstacle blocking Senate passage for months.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs added $227 million in net inflows on July 20, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive flows, according to SoSoValue data. That pushed the five-day total to roughly $727.3 million.
The broader crypto market followed Bitcoin higher. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) each gained around 3.5%, while Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) added 6%.
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