Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

RPM typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.

RPM's post-earnings price behavior shows substantial volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 5.83% and Day 0 range of 7.16%, indicating significant intraday swings on earnings day. The most dramatic recent reaction came in April 2026, when the stock surged 12.42% on Day 0 with a range of 5.55%, followed by additional gains of 2.07% on Day +1. Conversely, the April 2025 report triggered a -9.12% Day 0 decline, though the stock recovered with an 8.94% gain the following session.

The Day +1 average move of 2.22% with a range of 4.10% suggests that initial reactions often extend into the following session, though with diminishing magnitude. Recent quarters show a pattern where strong Day 0 moves tend to see modest follow-through, while volatile intraday action (wide Day 0 ranges) can lead to reversal or consolidation on Day +1. Investors should prepare for potential moves in the 5-7% range based on historical patterns, with the possibility of extended volatility if results significantly deviate from expectations.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 7.53% (±$7.65) for the August expiration, which sits above the historical average Day 0 move of 5.83% but below the average Day 0 range of 7.16%. This suggests options traders are anticipating volatility consistent with RPM's recent history, though not at the extreme levels seen in April 2026 (12.42%) or April 2025 (-9.12%). The implied move aligns more closely with the typical intraday range, indicating expectations for significant price discovery on earnings day.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on RPM remains decidedly bullish, with a consensus rating of 4.67 out of 5.0 (Strong Buy territory) and an average price target of $127.73, implying 25.8% upside from the current price of $101.53. The analyst community shows strong conviction, with 12 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Moderate Buy, and 2 Hold ratings among the 15 analysts covering the stock—notably, there are zero sell ratings.

The price target range spans from a low of $113.00 to a high of $143.00, with the high-end estimate suggesting potential upside of over 40%. This wide range reflects differing views on RPM's ability to sustain margin expansion and capitalize on construction market opportunities, though the clustering of Strong Buy ratings indicates broad agreement on the stock's fundamental value proposition.

Crucially, analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the rating distribution holding steady at 12 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, and 2 Holds. This stability suggests analysts are maintaining their bullish stance heading into earnings, confident that the company can deliver on elevated expectations. The lack of downgrades despite the stock's recent weakness and challenging technical setup indicates that the analyst community views current levels as an attractive entry point rather than a warning sign.

Part 4: Technical Picture

RPM's technical picture heading into earnings is decidedly weak, with the stock trading at $101.53—below all six major moving averages. The stock sits below its 5-day MA ($103.52), 10-day MA ($103.45), 20-day MA ($106.85), 50-day MA ($104.67), 100-day MA ($103.87), and 200-day MA ($106.73), indicating broad-based selling pressure across all timeframes.

The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a 40% Sell signal, representing a notable improvement from last week's more bearish 56% Sell reading but still weaker than last month's 8% Sell. This recent deterioration over the past month suggests mounting technical pressure despite the modest week-over-week improvement.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Neutral-to-slightly-positive signal suggests near-term momentum has stabilized after recent weakness, though conviction remains limited
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Bearish reading indicates the intermediate trend has turned negative, reflecting the stock's position below key moving averages
• Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal confirms significant weakness in the longer-term trend, with the stock failing to hold above its 200-day moving average

Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized as Weak in strength with Average direction, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction but with an underlying bias toward continued weakness—a challenging environment for a positive earnings surprise to gain sustained traction.

Key technical levels to watch include the 5-day and 10-day moving averages near $103.50, which represent immediate resistance, and the 20-day MA at $106.85, which would need to be reclaimed to signal a meaningful trend reversal. The 200-day moving average at $106.73 serves as a critical long-term resistance level. On the downside, a break below $100 could accelerate selling pressure given the lack of nearby support. The overall technical setup is cautionary heading into earnings, with the stock's position below all major moving averages and deteriorating longer-term signals suggesting limited technical support for a sustained rally—even if fundamental results exceed expectations, the stock may face resistance at overhead moving averages that could cap upside momentum.