According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, global AI may be fragmenting into two parallel ecosystems. American AI is driven by private capital, with a closed-source flagship model plus enterprise software subscriptions. The core of the business model is to replace high-cost manpower; China's AI uses policy and industry as a double wheel, an open source lightweight model plus low-cost reasoning services, and the focus is on upgrading the manufacturing industry and increasing digital consumption. We believe that this differentiation is not a phased technological gap, but rather a path differentiation determined by the four factors of economic structure, policy governance, capital preferences, and factor endowments, which may be difficult to subside in the short term. Looking at each link, the AI gap between China and the US is decreasing from top to bottom along the industrial chain, with the largest upstream chips and the smallest application layer. We believe that America's certainty lies in the proven enterprise-side revenue and cash flow in the computing power supply chain of the leading model company; China's certainty lies in the patient race between commercial cashout and financing; China's certainty lies in the domestic substitution of computing power, the global penetration of open source ecosystems, and the implementation of manufacturing scenarios. The variables are whether computing power utilization and commercial pricing can overcome. Looking to the future from a macro perspective, the US may be the first to usher in an AI-driven increase in productivity in the service industry, while China evolves along two paths: deepening the intelligence of the manufacturing industry, and making up for shortcomings in the productive services industry with intelligent cost performance.
Zhitongcaijing · 3d ago
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According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, global AI may be fragmenting into two parallel ecosystems. American AI is driven by private capital, with a closed-source flagship model plus enterprise software subscriptions. The core of the business model is to replace high-cost manpower; China's AI uses policy and industry as a double wheel, an open source lightweight model plus low-cost reasoning services, and the focus is on upgrading the manufacturing industry and increasing digital consumption. We believe that this differentiation is not a phased technological gap, but rather a path differentiation determined by the four factors of economic structure, policy governance, capital preferences, and factor endowments, which may be difficult to subside in the short term. Looking at each link, the AI gap between China and the US is decreasing from top to bottom along the industrial chain, with the largest upstream chips and the smallest application layer. We believe that America's certainty lies in the proven enterprise-side revenue and cash flow in the computing power supply chain of the leading model company; China's certainty lies in the patient race between commercial cashout and financing; China's certainty lies in the domestic substitution of computing power, the global penetration of open source ecosystems, and the implementation of manufacturing scenarios. The variables are whether computing power utilization and commercial pricing can overcome. Looking to the future from a macro perspective, the US may be the first to usher in an AI-driven increase in productivity in the service industry, while China evolves along two paths: deepening the intelligence of the manufacturing industry, and making up for shortcomings in the productive services industry with intelligent cost performance.
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