According to Woofun AI, the prediction market platform Kalshi officially submitted an application to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with the intention of expanding its business footprint from cryptocurrencies to traditional precious metals, and plans to launch perpetual futures contracts linked to gold, silver, and platinum.
This move marks a rise in demand for traditional asset trading. Perpetual futures, a derivative instrument that was once limited to the crypto market, is accelerating its penetration into the wider financial sector.
The game between regulatory approval and transaction mechanisms became a core variable in this expansion. According to the established process, the CFTC will decide whether to approve the application within 45 days. Compared with some event contracts that can be certified by the exchange itself, new products such as perpetual futures face stricter scrutiny. In terms of setting trading hours, Kalshi plans to implement a five-day, 24-hour trading system to match the traditional precious metals market rhythm, rather than being open all year round like crypto perpetual contracts. Kalshi's chief risk officer Udesh Jha revealed that the company is still evaluating the possibility of further extending the trading time.
Notably, geopolitical conflicts have intensified demand for traditional asset trading. For example, during the Iran war, some retail investors used related products to trade oil prices to circumvent traditional futures market closure restrictions. Meanwhile, the competitive landscape of the industry is being reshaped. Emerging platforms, including Hyperliquid, have launched real-world asset contracts linked to gold and crude oil, forcing traditional giants to respond faster. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) plans to officially launch a 7×24 hour trading service for existing 1-ounce gold futures contracts this week (July 26) to cope with market changes.
At the macro level, the gold market is in a critical period of adjustment. Since the price of gold hit a record high at the end of January this year, the biggest drop once reached about 25%, mainly affected by market concerns that the Federal Reserve might maintain high interest rates and suppress the performance of interest-free assets.
However, many institutions believe that the current price of gold is already showing signs of being oversold, and opportunities for a rebound are forming. The US research institute Zweig-dimenna pointed out that the central bank of China recently increased its gold purchasing efforts again, which may mean that the market is bottoming out.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the gold reserves officially announced in the first half of 2026 increased by 40 tons. As of the end of June, the gold reserves reached 75.44 million ounces (about 2346.45 tons). This is also the 20th month in a row that the central bank has increased its gold holdings. Among them, the monthly holdings increased by 15 tons in June, which is the largest monthly purchase since October 2023. By contrast, the central bank of China's annual purchases in 2025 was only about $2 billion. According to Zweig-dimenna's analysis, the current price of gold is about 10% below the 200-day EMA. Historically, similar situations have led to a clear rebound after 1999 and 2022.
However, the 1981 and 2013 cases also show that the price of gold may fall further after being oversold, so the market trend still depends on the macro environment. Morgan Stanley is also optimistic about the future gold market. Its commodities team expects a gold price target of 4,450 US dollars per ounce at the end of the year, mainly based on continued purchases by central banks around the world.
Although institutions are bullish, the central bank's current demand for gold purchases is still partially offset by outflows of gold ETFs. Last year, ETF investors contributed about one-fifth of the demand for gold, but investor enthusiasm declined due to the easing of geographical risks, changes in interest rate expectations, and a pullback in gold prices. The key to the future trend of gold remains the Federal Reserve's policy.
If inflation continues to cool down and the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged or even cuts interest rates in the future, the decline in real interest rates may once again increase the attractiveness of gold and drive the return of ETF funds. According to the agency, the recent adjustment of gold does not mean that long-term logic is destroyed. As central banks around the world increase their gold reserves, safe-haven demand continues to exist in the market, and new trading instruments continue to emerge, the gold market may be preparing for the next round of market conditions. Kalshi's layout of precious metal perpetual futures also shows that traditional asset trading is evolving in a more flexible and more frequent direction.