The Zhitong Finance App learned that financial analysis company S3 Partners indicated that Tesla (TSLA.US) is facing one of the most pessimistic market conditions in recent years when it is about to release its second-quarter earnings report after the US stock market on Wednesday — as the technical indicators of the electric vehicle manufacturer's stock continue to weaken, bears are stepping up their bets.
According to S3 Partners data, Tesla's short holdings have climbed from about 60 million shares in March to close to 80 million shares, an increase of about 33%. Meanwhile, the company's 30-day “days-to-cover ratio” (days-to-cover ratio) has risen to 1.75 days — a higher ratio of short payback days usually means that shorting is crowded and takes longer to close short positions.
S3 Partners said, “The recent increase in short positions reflects not only an increase in the scale of shorting, but also a weakening in trading volume, which has brought the current bearish positions to the highest level of congestion in the market relative to market liquidity since 2021.”
At the same time, the technical side of Tesla stock also deteriorated. After failing to maintain the upward trend after breaking through $430, Tesla's stock price has now fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages; its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 39, indicating that the market continues to be under selling pressure, but it has not yet entered the oversold region. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is still in a bearish crossover state.
S3 Partners concluded that Tesla was in a situation where bearish positions were increasing and technical indicators were weakening before earnings were released. These two factors further strengthened the pessimistic logic of the market. The agency said, “Currently, the burden of proving their views falls on the side of multiple investors.” For Tesla bulls, this will be a tough battle. Tesla needs performance guidance that exceeds expectations in order to reverse the current bearish sentiment dominated by it.
Goodbye to the “car sales narrative”? Robotaxi scale-up and Optimus mass production ushered in key verification
Tesla will announce financial results for the second quarter of 2026 after the US stock market on Wednesday. Against the backdrop of slowing electric vehicle delivery, heated competition, and continued pressure on profit margins, the market's focus has shifted from simply car sales to more imaginative growth narratives such as autonomous taxis, the humanoid robot Optimus, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Investors are trying to find a clear signal from this financial report whether Musk can re-energize the company for sustainable growth.
With regard to this financial report, with the disclosure of delivery data and business progress, market expectations have improved markedly recently. Currently, Wall Street expects the company's second-quarter revenue to reach 26.4 billion US dollars, earnings per share of 0.52 US dollars, and the gross profit margin of the automobile business (excluding regulatory points) will be slightly higher than 18%. Measured by the latest forecasts, revenue will increase by about 17% compared to the same period in 2025, while earnings per share are expected to increase by close to 30% year over year, although profit before tax may still decline slightly by 1% to US$1.88 billion.
Tesla has disclosed in advance that global deliveries for the second quarter were 480,126 vehicles, and production was 451,758 vehicles. Although the delivery data was better than some pessimistic expectations, leading to a slight recovery in market sentiment, it did not completely dispel the doubts of the outside world about the stability of its market position. At a time when the electric vehicle market is gradually maturing, it is increasingly difficult to maintain its share. Investors will pay close attention to management's outlook on production plans, order trends and terminal demand for the second half of the year, especially in a macro environment where interest rates in major economies are still relatively high and consumers are more cautious about large optional consumer spending.
Beyond the basic market of the electric vehicle business, fully autonomous driving software (FSD) and autonomous taxi (Robotaxi) businesses are the core pillars of Tesla's long-term valuation. The actual implementation and pace of expansion of Tesla's Robotaxi business became one of the most anticipated updates in this earnings call.
Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry said that the financial report is expected to bring more details about the Robotaxi deployment, especially the pace of fleet expansion and new market expansion plans. Since starting the Miami service on July 3, Tesla has already started operations in five markets, and another four markets have entered the preparation stage.
Furthermore, the humanoid robot Optimus is moving from a vision repeatedly drawn by Musk to a key point in production line implementation. Musk has given Optimus extremely aggressive production expectations for the past two years, and this quarter could be the beginning of verifying its execution. According to the latest information, Tesla plans to start initial production of the Optimus at the Fremont plant from the end of July to August, and is likely to release the third-generation Optimus at the same time. More specific signals come from the supply chain — Tesla has begun issuing clear procurement guidelines to suppliers, requesting that parts production capacity be increased to around 1,000 units per week in September and further expanded to 2,000 to 2,500 units per week before the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley expects Musk to explain Optimus's final design, production slope curve, and early application scenarios within Tesla's in-house manufacturing system in an earnings update. If things go well, Optimus is expected to move from long-term options to a visible growth curve.
For Tesla, energy generation and storage are becoming increasingly important contributors to profits. As utilities and businesses increase their investment in grid-connected energy storage systems to support the energy transition, demand for Megapack large-scale battery systems continues to be strong. The increase in revenue and profit in the energy business has provided Tesla with valuable diversified support beyond automobile manufacturing.
AI investment is a dark line running through this financial report. Musk has emphasized many times that AI capabilities are Tesla's core competitive advantage, supporting not only autonomous driving, but also the brain of the Optimus robot program. The market will look forward to specific explanations on AI infrastructure investment, the scale of computing power, and how it can be converted into future revenue. In a context of soaring capital expenditure and pressure on free cash flow, investors need to hear a convincing “physical AI” input-output logic from management.