NVIDIA (NVDA) is back in focus after supplier Wistron opened a Texas facility to build its Grace Blackwell Ultra and future Vera Rubin systems, while new cloud partnerships expand access to NVIDIA powered AI infrastructure.
See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.
NVIDIA’s recent news on domestic manufacturing and new AI cloud partnerships comes as the stock trades at US$212.06, with a 30 day share price return of 6.01% and a year to date share price return of 12.29%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 22.22% and the very large 5 year total shareholder return indicate that longer term momentum has been stronger than recent quarterly moves.
If you are weighing NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure story against other opportunities, this is a useful moment to scan the market for 54 AI infrastructure stocks
NVIDIA’s share price has already packed in years of AI optimism, yet fresh CPU ambitions and expanded manufacturing raise the question: is most of the value already reflected, or is there still clear upside left on today’s valuation?
Most Popular Narrative: 38% Undervalued
At a last close of $212.06, the most followed narrative on NVIDIA points to a fair value of $339.90, implying a wide gap between market price and narrative assumptions.
Nvidia will hit $400b annual revenue in 5 years time. ~90% of revenue will come from data centre customers. This equates to $90b / quarter, or equivalent to 30,000 Blackwell racks (at ~$3m per rack).
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what underpins that jump from today’s revenue base to a far larger AI data center business? The narrative leans heavily on sustained high margins and a premium profit multiple that assumes NVIDIA keeps its current ecosystem lead. Curious how those building blocks stack together to reach that fair value and what would need to go right at each step?
Result: Fair Value of $339.90 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, NVIDIA’s AI-heavy narrative could be disrupted if competing chip or software platforms gain traction, or if tighter regulations curb large-scale data center expansion.
Find out about the key risks to this NVIDIA narrative.
Next Steps
With sentiment around NVIDIA split between strong AI optimism and emerging concerns, this is a moment to move quickly and test the narrative against the underlying data yourself using 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond NVIDIA?
If NVIDIA has sharpened your interest in AI and infrastructure, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now and give yourself more options across the market.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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