Kazakhstan should, in theory, be one of the major beneficiaries of Russia’s growing isolation from global energy markets. Its crude is unsanctioned and European refiners need alternatives to Russian barrels. Yet instead of gaining a clear geopolitical advantage, Kazakhstan has found itself exposed to many of the same risks as its northern neighbour: attacks on export infrastructure, disruptions inside Russia and repeated operational failures at its own largest fields. The roots of that vulnerability lie partly in geography and partly in the…

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