The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOCHK (02388) rose by more than 5%. As of press release, it had risen 4.74% to HK$50.65, with a turnover of HK$1.42 billion.
Komo released a research report saying that with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting releasing more hawkish signals, the SOFR and HIBOR forward yield curves will rise in the next 12 to 18 months, and BOCHK's net interest spread is expected to remain around 1.6% in the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years, driving net interest income to achieve high unit growth in the 2026 fiscal year. Furthermore, the risk of exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) in Hong Kong has subsided. Industry data and communication with management show that the Hong Kong CRE portfolio did not significantly add new non-performing loans in the first half of FY2026. Credit costs are expected to decrease year-on-year, helping to increase profits in the 2026-2028 fiscal year.
Xiaomo added that the market has taken into account expectations of increasing TSR through share repurchases or special dividends. The analysis shows that the company has the ability to provide shareholders with a yield of up to 3% per year in the 2026-2028 fiscal year, while maintaining a CET1 ratio superior to the industry average; under the benchmark scenario, the annual special dividend is expected to be 0.95 yuan, which can contribute an additional 2 percentage points to TSR. The bank raised BOCHK's profit forecast for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years by 8% and 9%. It is expected that the stock price will continue to outperform the market over the next 6 to 12 months, supported by reasonable valuations and excellent total shareholder return (TSR).