Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) delivered its strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years on Thursday, but the stock slipped Friday in volatile trading.
The chipmaker reported a 25% revenue jump to $16.1 billion against estimates of $14.4 billion, with adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share doubling the 21 cents expected. Data center revenue rose 59% to $6.3 billion, and third-quarter guidance came in well above consensus.
Shares jumped as much as 12% after hours before reversing Friday, down over 6% and trading near $94.
Prediction markets saw the quarter coming. Polymarket traders had Intel at 95% to beat estimates earlier in the week.
Wall Street Weighs The Bill
CFO David Zinsner raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance from $18 billion to more than $20 billion, and said 2027 would be “significantly above” that, but noted Intel could tap capital markets for funds.
Intel this month committed 5 billion euros to its Leixlip campus in Ireland to boost output of Xeon server chips it reportedly cannot supply fast enough.
The strain shows in the earnings report: operations generated $7.0 billion in cash, but adjusted free cash flow was negative $8.4 billion as capex consumed it.
Investors have reason to be wary of the spending. Big Tech’s hidden AI debt reportedly tops $1.65 trillion, according to a Nikkei Asia study, and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell this week after its own free cash flow turned negative for the first time. By Ed Zitron’s math, the buildout would require roughly $1.68 trillion in annual compute revenue to pay for itself, while the global software industry generates less than $800 billion.
The market that prices this fear most directly, Polymarket’s AI bubble market, gives just 16% odds of an industry downturn by year-end, a figure that has swung between 9% and 30% this year.
Analysts Split
Stifel cut its target from $120 to $110, saying the key catalyst, a signed external foundry customer, has “not yet arrived.” The numbers agree: just $293 million of Intel Foundry’s $5.8 billion in revenue, roughly 5%, came from outside customers, and the unit lost $2.09 billion.
Bulls counter that 18A yields have reportedly hit 85%, up from 65% a quarter ago, and that this week’s cloud deal runs on that node. Bank of America’s $160 target calls U.S. leading-edge capacity and White House backing “long-term competitive moats.”
Despite the pullback, Intel shares remain up roughly 140% year to date.
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