Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:HINDPETRO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.8% to ₹381 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of ₹84.81 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of ₹1.4t came in 9.5% ahead of analyst predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hindustan Petroleum's 17 analysts is for revenues of ₹5.08t in 2027. This reflects a notable 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -₹14.16 per share in 2027. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹5.34t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹7.74 in 2027. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Hindustan Petroleum, administering a small dip in to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.
See our latest analysis for Hindustan Petroleum
There was no major change to the consensus price target of ₹407, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hindustan Petroleum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹660 and the most bearish at ₹290 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Hindustan Petroleum's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hindustan Petroleum is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Hindustan Petroleum to become unprofitable next year. They also downgraded Hindustan Petroleum's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹407, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hindustan Petroleum analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Hindustan Petroleum has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.