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To own ASX today, you need to believe its core market infrastructure remains resilient while it invests heavily in technology and governance reform. The planned retirement of CFO Andrew Tobin adds another layer of uncertainty around cost control and capital allocation, at a time when expense growth, ASIC scrutiny and CHESS execution risk are already central to the near term story. On balance, the news looks incrementally negative but not thesis breaking on its own.
The recent ASIC settlement and CHESS related court proceedings are closely linked to Tobin’s tenure, because they crystallise both the financial and governance stakes around ASX’s transformation. With Release 1 of the new CHESS system now live and penalties of A$20.5 million plus A$3 million in costs agreed in principle, investors are watching how the finance function manages rising technology spend, legal outflows and the timing of further CHESS investment against existing expense growth guidance.
Yet, investors should also be aware that if cost growth stays elevated while the CHESS program still faces...
Read the full narrative on ASX (it's free!)
ASX's narrative projects A$1.4 billion revenue and A$508.0 million earnings by 2029. This requires 5.7% yearly revenue growth and a A$14.7 million earnings decrease from A$522.7 million today.
Uncover how ASX's forecasts yield a A$55.59 fair value, in line with its current price.
Some analysts were more optimistic, assuming revenue could reach about A$1.4 billion and earnings about A$521 million, while also seeing the tech modernisation capex program as a key risk, so this CFO change may cause those views to shift in different ways.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on ASX - why the stock might be worth as much as A$55.59!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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