CITIC Securities pointed out that the ECB kept its policy interest rate unchanged as scheduled in July. The wording of the statement was brief, and once again mentioned the risk of the Middle East conflict. The situation it faced and the factors it considered were all somewhat similar to April. Lagarde followed Walsh's attitude of canceling the forward-looking guidelines and revealed that some voting committees had considered raising interest rates, but also said that no second-round effects have been observed so far, leaving enough room for the possibility of various future actions by the ECB. We now anticipate that the ECB may raise interest rates in September, but at most once in the second half of the year. The euro may continue its weak and volatile performance in the near future.

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