The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that in the short term, the situation in the Middle East is highly uncertain, and the interests of all parties are still fiercely contested. Incidental factors drive stock price fluctuations. However, in the medium term, low capacity growth rate and rapid transit, detours, and future alternative channels due to geographical instability are all factors driving the stability and even further increase of freight rates. The profits of express delivery companies that have been disclosed in the interim report for the second quarter all achieved a sharp year-on-year increase. It is verified that the “anti-internal roll” catalytic price repair dividend is being realized at an accelerated pace to the profit side. As the lock in grain-producing regions is extended until August, the sustainability and strength of this year's “anti-internal roll” is expected to exceed expectations, and it is expected that it will drive various express delivery prices to rise further month-on-month in the future. Overall, under the resonance of rising oil price costs, normalized supervision, and bottom-up price increases, there is a clear upward trend in unit prices, and I am optimistic that the share and profit of access will increase.
The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
Aviation: Demand for summer travel is picking up at an accelerated pace, and ticket price recovery is still weak
1) In June '26, ASK for the entire industry was -2% YoY, civil aviation passenger traffic -7% YoY, and passenger occupancy rate +0.1pct YoY. 2) In the 25 days before the summer travel season in '26, the average ticket price for civil aviation was 833 yuan, -0.8% compared to the same period in '25, -6.8% compared to the same period in '19, and +16.7% compared to the same period in '19. The year-on-year decline in ticket prices increased, but travel volume increased year-on-year. The bank believes that despite weak ticket prices at the beginning of the summer travel season, considering the delayed start of travel demand and high passenger occupancy rates, it is expected that summer passenger traffic will continue to rise steadily year on year. 3) The situation in the Middle East is repeated. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 37% to 94 US dollars/barrel this week. We need to pay attention to the risk of subsequent geopolitics transmission to aviation fuel costs.
Oil transportation: The mismatch between supply and demand in the medium term is still the biggest upward driving force for the sector
Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Hayman Strait are heating up at the same time this week: the US military attacked Iranian targets for many days, and the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was once again under pressure; the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers, and some VLCCs and merchant ships immediately turned around, suspended, or adjusted their routes. After the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, Yanbu Port became an important alternative channel for the export of Saudi crude oil. If Yanbu's export volume is basically maintained and traffic through the Mander Strait continues to be restricted, crude oil from Asia may need to enter the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal or SUMED pipeline and then detour to the Cape of Good Hope; combined with VLCC load reduction, transit and secondary loading, the voyage and turnover cycle will be significantly lengthened. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East is highly uncertain, and the interests of all parties are still in a fierce game. Incidental factors drive stock price fluctuations. However, in the medium term, low capacity growth rate and rapid transit, detours, and future alternative channels due to geographical instability are all factors driving the stability and even further increase of freight rates.
Express: The continuity and intensity of “anti-internal circulation” is expected to exceed expectations, and the share and profit of leading companies will both increase
1) Industry: From July 13 to July 19, postal express delivery volume was +8% year-on-year, +1% month-on-month, delivery volume +7% year-on-month, and +1% month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate increased for four consecutive weeks.
2) E-commerce Express: Yuantong Express plans to buy back 30 to 50 million yuan of shares for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives. The profits of express delivery companies that have been disclosed in the interim report for the second quarter all achieved a sharp year-on-year increase. It is verified that the “anti-internal roll” catalytic price repair dividend is being realized at an accelerated pace to the profit side. As the lock in grain-producing regions is extended until August, the sustainability and strength of this year's “anti-internal roll” is expected to exceed expectations, and it is expected that it will drive various express delivery prices to rise further month-on-month in the future. Overall, under the resonance of rising oil price costs, normalized supervision, and bottom-up price increases, there is a clear upward trend in unit prices, and I am optimistic that the share and profit of access will increase.
Logistics: Mongolia's main coking coal prices continue to pick up, cross-border demand between China and the US is growing rapidly, and air freight rates are strong
Since '26, Ganqimaodu Port has opened a total of 205,000 vehicles, +51% over the same period, with a cumulative import and export cargo volume of 29.99,800 tons, +56%. The average weekly short-term freight rate this week was 71 yuan/ton, +9% month-on-month, +18% year-on-year, and raw coal/refined coal site prices were +27%/+25% YoY, compounded by domestic and foreign supply restrictions and upward energy prices. It is expected that Mongolian coal volume and price will remain high in the second half of the year. This week's Asia-Pacific to American Airlines cargo volume was +3% month-on-week and +15% year-on-year. Spot freight rates remained flat from week to week, +36% year over year, and demand resilience was strong. Affected by the Middle East conflict and the surge in AI demand, air cargo freight rates rose 17% year on year in the first half of '26, and are expected to rise 5% to 15% for the whole year.
Risk analysis: declining demand, policy changes, geopolitical risks, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.