Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that as far as the current market is concerned, “whether the AI capital expenditure cycle has peaked” is the core of the market game. Judging from industry trends, the current AI industry trend has not relaxed. The core driver of the recent adjustments is market doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure. The bearish logic seems to be blocked on both sides: if giants increase capital expenditure, debt dilutes shareholders' equity; if expenses are reduced, it means that the AI cycle has peaked. But the key omission in this logic is that borrowing itself is not a problem; it is whether the investment has a positive return. Liquidity risk may have been phased out. Looking back, the market still needs to maintain a certain level of popularity and transaction scale before Changxin Technology goes public. The superimposed leveraged capital has clearly been eliminated, and the short-term market is expected to usher in a wave of rebound. 1. Within technology, priority attention is given to the direction of domestic semiconductor equipment, storage and computing power. After Changxin went public, the market may experience a round of rebound. The Science and Innovation 50 sector may be the most flexible direction; 2. Other than technology: power equipment, non-ferrous materials, and innovative drugs can all be given due attention.

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